Last week’s numbers hit way lower than I predicted. Except for Passaic. My drop in accuracy is mostly due to Rhode Island, they reported only 1000 cases which would mean there was only a 31% Spread Rate. I will keep an eye on the information coming out of RI in the next few days and report back.
Last Week’s Accuracy rating: 71.74%
Projects Overall Accuracy: 84.76%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 2600
Actual: 1707
Accuracy: 65.65%
Spread Rate for 2/8: 0.55
There were no entries on the 13th or 14th. Had there been entries that matched the average daily case count then the weeks count would have been 2300.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.78 Spread Rate = 1334 Cases
3 Week: 0.76 Spread Rate = 1294 Cases
2 Week: 0.69 Spread Rate = 1172 Cases
14 Day Average: 401 Avg = 2804 Cases
7 Days Average: 341 Avg = 2390 Cases
MY PREDICTION
All locations have artificially low numbers due to in climate weather. Austin is currently in the middle of a “Ice-Pocolapse.” People are without power all over the state and there is a potential for things to get worse. But next week (2/22) it will get warmer. Due to the current climate and closed businesses, I think the Covid count will be low for the next two weeks:
1. There will be a significant drop in virus spreading possibilities (Nowhere to shop, closed jobs, no outdoor socialization events)
2. Covid Testing facilities are closed due to the ice.
That being said, the rise in temps, delayed testing and potential for Covid spreading while people stormed the grocery stores this past weekend could result in Covid cases artificially spiking next week and potentially the end of this week.
Prediction: 1700 (again)
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1380
Actual: 1606
Accuracy: 85.93%
Spread Rate for 2/8: 1.00
Passaic reported cases on all days.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.95 Spread Rate = 1518 Cases
3 Week: 0.96 Spread Rate = 1535 Cases
2 Week: 0.96 Spread Rate = 1535 Cases
14 Day Average: 229 Avg = 1605 Cases
7 Days Average: 229 Avg = 1606 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Passaic County hit almost exactly where it was last week. The highest case reporting was on Wednesday, potentially test results coming back three days later from Monday. Monday would be spill over from the previous week. The rest of the week’s numbers fall in line with an area that’s slowly declining.
The area is supposed to receive more ice and snow this week.
Prediction: 1400
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1760
Actual: 1647
Accuracy: 93.58%
Spread Rate for 2/8: 0.75
Boston reported cases on all days.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.79 Spread Rate = 1303 Cases
3 Week: 0.79 Spread Rate = 1294 Cases
2 Week: 0.77 Spread Rate = 1264 Cases
14 Day Average: 274 Avg = 1919 Cases
7 Days Average: 235 Avg = 1647Cases
All weekly formulas are hitting in the same area because the last four weeks have seen a steady decline and no dramatic switches in any particular direction.
MY PREDICTION
As the temperature gets colder and the weather produces more snow and ice, the drop in Boston should continue. Currently it is supposed to snow on Thursday and Friday, which means reduced social interactions.
Prediction: 1300
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 2400
Actual: 1003
Accuracy: 41.79%
Spread Rate for 2/8: 0.31
Rhode Island did not report any cases on the 13th or 14th. Had they reported the daily average on those two days, the week count would have been around 1300.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.62 Spread Rate = 623 Cases
3 Week: 0.63 Spread Rate = 628 Cases
2 Week: 0.53 Spread Rate = 533 Cases
14 Day Average: 299 Avg = 2095 Cases
7 Days Average: 143 Avg = 1003 Cases
MY PREDICTION
The cases this week dropped drastically. Mostly due to bad weather and cold temps. Would like to say that I think this big of a drop (69%) is rare. I will be looking into this more
As the temperature gets colder and the weather produces more snow and ice, the drop in Rhode Island should continue. Currently it is supposed to snow on Thursday and Friday, which means reduced social interactions.
But I think the numbers this week are artificial, theres only 1000 cases due to the weather. And while the weather will continue, I think we will start to realize actual case numbers this week.
Prediction: 1200