UPDATE: I finally got around to automating my Covid Reports. Now all my Weekly Round Ups and and Forecasting Formulas will be presented in form of a screenshot of my spreadsheet and not actually typed out. Probably saves me an hour each week of shifting between screens.
Last weeks accuracy was: 77.33%
Total Project Accuracy is: 84.09%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
MY PREDICTION
Cases are going to spike as people get braver with going into public spaces and fewer places require masks. I don’t see this turning into a ‘run away’ spike like the holidays were. More vaccinations limit the amount of people that can get the virus and the increase in good weather and higher temps will result in more people outside. As we’ve seen before, going out and higher temps increase the probability of the Spread Rates lowering.
Prediction: 1000
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
MY PREDICTION
Passaic actually reversed on me! Given its steady rise over the last few weeks, I can’t see this number dropping by much. I’ll stick with the Forecasting Formulas.
Prediction: 1700
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
MY PREDICTION
Boston was my closest prediction but its still higher than I expected. The Spread Rate Forecasters point towards a continued rise.
Prediction: 2300
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
1WUSP (1 Week Untouched Spread Predictor): 1270
2WUSP: 1309
3WUSP: 1419
MY PREDICTION
Rhode Island continuing its rise. WASR Formulas point towards a nearly 1.0 Spread Rate. But WUSP Formulas point towards almost half that. Then again, the WUSP operates under the assumption that Vaccine Rates continue to rise.
Prediction: 2900