NEW CASES IN LAST 30 DAYS
Poultry: 9,555,030 UP: 11.02%
Wild bird: 249 UP: 6.64%
Diary cow Herds: 16 UP: 1.63%
TOTAL CASES SINCE 2024-01-01
Poultry: 86,703,144.00 cases.
Wildbird 3,748.00 cases.
DairyCow 980.00 cases.
Updates since my last report on 2025-02-19:
ESTABLISHMENTS
There are 1 more Egg processing establishments within counties reporting Poultry H5N1 cases. 16 out of 47 (34.04%) FSIS inspected Egg establishments are in infected counties.
There are 3 more Poultry Slaughter establishments within counties reporting Poultry H5N1 cases. 86 out of 426 (20.19%) FSIS inspected Poultry Slaughter establishments are in infected counties.
9 at risk Poultry establishments became infected from Wildbrid/Mammal spreading of Avian Flu.
At risk Egg establishments grew by 0 thanks to Wildbrid/Mammal spreading of Avian Flu.
STATES & COUNTIES
Counties with Poultry cases increased by 18 for a total of 291 affected counties since 01/01/2024
Counties with Wildbird cases increased by 10 for a total of 510 affected counties since 01/01/2024
States with DairyCow Herds stayed flat with 0 new states, total affected sits at 18
Below is a map of counties in the USA where H5N1 has been reported in various Poultry.
The state with the most NEW cases within the last 7 reporting days is: Indiana with a reported count of: 228,030
The state with the most overall reported Poultry cases is: California with a total count of: 18,217,528
What about Eggs?
The effect of Avian Influenza on Eggs is hard to nail down as Egg production forecasts are not a guarantee. In order to get insight into this sector we will have to make some assumptions and use averages when creating forecast formulas.
According to the USDA: "There is no treatment for HPAI. The only way to stop the disease is to depopulate all affected and exposed poultry." Meaning, it is presumed that any reported Poultry case has resulted in a death/culling.
Egg Layer is outpacing Broiler with infection cases: 68,647,800 to 8,739,850
Egg Layer makes up 79.18% of all Poultry cases while Broiler makes up just 10.08%
Pullets (future Egg Layers) are currenting tracking at 3.06%
TLDR, what’s the situation today?
Assuming most growers are attempting to replace all bird losses and increase their population to the three-year median level, my model estimates the Breeder Stock population in the US is sitting around 3,805,851 a decrease of 84,149 from 3,890,000 in Jan 2024.
The same model suggests Table Egg Layer population is currently at 306,972,361 a decrease of 13,027,639 from 320,000,000 in Jan 2024.
Taking a look at last week: 6,559,114 (34.05%) Breeder Stock eggs were used to replenish lost Breeders and Table Egg Layers instead of going to other uses such as Retail and Live sales.
Table Egg Layers laid 1,867,494,568 Eggs, 5.01% short if there were no Avian flu deaths, just 97.21% of their production if a median bird population was kept.
A total of 140,550 Table Eggs were lost this week. 22,709,344 so far in 2025.
Terms:
1. Table Egg Layers are birds that lay Eggs meant for retail/further processing.
2. Breeder Stock Hens are birds breed to produce fertilized eggs that hatch into Table Egg Layers. If their numbers decline, so does the future population of Table Egg Layers and therefore the inventory of Retail Eggs.
3. Pullets are Chicks that haven’t matured into Table Egg Layers yet.
Limited Data: The USDA does not currently report Avian Flu cases for Breeder Stock Hens. However, Breeder stock Hens make up 1.21% of birds related to Table Egg Laying. So we will calculate their exposure to Avian Flu using that percentage against all Table Egg Layers reported on the Avian Flu numbers.
Assumptions, Averages and Medians:
1. For 2022-2024 the Median number of Table Egg Layers was 315,963,300 with Breeding Stock at 3,840,480. They make up 98.79% and 1.21% of the Egg laying population respectively. These are the population numbers we will attempt to maintain.
2. Per the USDA, in December 2023 the Breeder Stock population was 3.89 Million and the Table Egg Layer population was 320 Million. We will start with these numbers.
3. Per the USDA, for every 100 Egg Layers there is an average of 80 Eggs laid daily.
4. Let’s assume there is a 60% replacement rate each year due to old age, declining productivity and other natural causes (not Avian Flu). Meaning, 60% of the years starting population will need to be replaced by year end.
5. Assume an 85% Hatchability rate for all Eggs.
6. 50% chance of either Male or Female Chick for all Eggs.
7. Chick survival rate of 90%.
8. Pullets/Chicks take 18 weeks (126 Days) to Mature into Egg laying Hens.
Formulas:
Without getting too complicated.
We have two running populations: Breeder Stock and Table Layers. Each day we subtract their respective share of the Avian Flu deaths and the annual 60% replacements. [(Population * 60%)/365] We then add the matured Pullet population minus any Pullet Avian Flu deaths.
Breeder Stock Egg production is determined by a quick formula outlined above. 80 Eggs for every 100 layers, 93% chance of Fertilization and 85% Hatchability. [(((Population/100)*80)*93%)*85%)
Table Egg Layer Egg production is determined slightly differently. 80 Eggs for every 100 layers and a 95% chance the Egg is usable. This allows 5% uncertainty for accidents/issues.
Eggs to Pullets are estimated by adding up several variables. Birds needing replacements, Avian Flu Deaths, and median population refill. These are subtracted from the Breeder Stock Egg Production and held onto for 18 weeks to mature.
To give you an idea of how these outbreaks affect/relate to Poultry and Egg operations in the US, here is the heat map with Poultry and Egg Operations over layed on top.
The USDA also tracks Wildbirds which are big carries of the disease.
Avian Flu is predominately spread via Wildbirds from one Poultry flock to another. However, there has also been quite a few cases detected in other Mammals that can easily spread the disease.
These other Mammals include small roddents, house cats, domesticated dogs, wolves, deer, etc.
There are currently 12 Poultry operations and 1 Egg opertaions residing in counties with Wildbird/Mammal cases but no reported Poultry cases.
These operations are at risk of being exposed to outbreaks.
Lastly, there has been a significant amount of cases in Dairy Cows all across the United States.
