Well last week’s predictions weren’t what I expected. My new accuracy rating for all predictions is now at 75.08%, down 11 points. Sheessssh…..See my previous post for all the prediction/actuals information for the week of 12/7.
Please note that I had a Data Quality issue with Rhode Island. It’s explained in the previous post.
I am now tracking FOUR different locations. I feel like I’m playing multiple spots at a blackjack table, except I suck at counting cards. Regardless, this is a great lesson in Data Analytics.
Travis County (Austin, Texas)
The week of 12/7 saw a case increase of 2,232. 68 cases or 0.03% more than the increase of 11/30. Making the weeks Spread Rate 1.03. The Four Week Average Spread Rate (4WASR) was 1.25.
The 4WASR has now been trending downward over the last 3 weeks.
11/23- 1.33
11/30- 1.27
12/7- 1.25
Previous to Halloween the 4WASR was sporadic and no week seemed to react to the previous. Then we saw it rise consistently from 0.97 to its peak of 1.33 from 10/26 to 11/23. Each week was higher than the previous. My prediction was that we would see a similarly consistent rise after Thanksgiving, adding to a growing wave of new cases; however that was not the case.
Curiously enough, the Two Week Average Spread Rate (2WASR) was the closest to the actual case count with a prediction of a 1.11 Spread Rate and 2410 cases (92.61% accuracy). The 2WASR is also on the decline; its peak was 1.47 for the week of 11/16.
Dave, does a Spread rate decline mean the virus is going away? Not yet. Any Spread Rate above 1.00 means there are more confirmed cases than the previous week had. So the total count keeps rising higher. Once the Spread Rate is below 1.00 then we will see less confirmed cases than the previous week. And a consistently declining Spread Rate below 1.00 is what we need to confirm the viruses Spread Rate is under control. However, all the data I use comes from other sources and is completely reliant on people getting tested and for the test results to be accurate. Meaning, there’s plenty of room for error. Like a large convention center amount of room for error. See last week for example.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.13 Spread Rate = 2523 Cases
3 Week: 1.09 Spread Rate = 2424 Cases
2 Week: 1.19 Spread Rate = 2652 Cases
14 Day Average: 290 Avg = 2032 Cases
7 Days Average: 319 Avg = 2232 Cases
4 Week Average County Population % Increase: 0.1181% Increase = 1505 Cases
MY PREDICTION
This week is tough, my confidence is shattered. But the show must go on. So Quick and Dirty…
My 4WASR says we are looking at a spread rate of 1.13, translating to 2523 new cases for 12/14. Given the downward trending spread rate over the last three weeks, I believe this number to be possible. However, that would be a 0.12 drop in the spread rate, a drop we haven’t seen before. So seeing as the 12/7 4WASR was 1.25 and the 12/14 4WASR is 1.13, I’ll average those out for a 1.19 spread rate. That spread rate would translate to 2,660 new cases. That number pretty much falls in line with all current trends.
So here goes nothing. My prediction for 12/14 is 2,660.
Rhode Island (Yea…the whole state)
Well Rhode Island…you did it. The first week I analyze you and you outsmart me. If you see my previous post, you will see that I had a data quality issue with this state. Regardless, even with the new data, my formulas still overshot the mark by 3k.
Rhode Island’s Covid case count for 12/7 was 8545 with a spread rate of 0.96. Again, more than 300 less than the week before…. Something’s up with you East Coast-ers. But I will say, this slump in numbers comes just as the state instituted a ‘Pause’ to try and keep the spread rate down. So maybe its working??
4 Week Graph
3 Week Graph
2 Week Graph
When I throw my Forecasts and Actual Spread Rates in a Line Graph, I get a visual representation of how well the forecasts have done. So far they haven’t flown wildly out of line. (The graph starts at April 20th because that’s when we had enough data to run weekly forecasts)
I won’t spend much time on this one. Obviously I need to examine both formulas and local politics.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.13 Spread Rate = 9660 Cases
3 Week: 1.12 Spread Rate = 9531 Cases
2 Week: 1.23 Spread Rate = 10517 Cases
14 Day Average: 1200 Avg= 8398 Cases
7 Days Average: 1221 Avg = 8545 Cases
The 7 Day average declined from 1272 over the past week….or 7 days….
4 Week Average County Population % Increase: 0.59% Increase = 5969 Cases
MY PREDICTION
I’m going to blame bad data for last week’s fumble. However, my formulas still predicted a very high case number even with the new, high quality data. I’m going to keep analyzing the data to try and get a more accurate look at whats going on. However….
The average of the all formulas (except the County Population %) comes to 9330.25
That’s lower than the weekly forecasts, but still 800 more than 12/7s total case count.
So with this in mind, plus the states entry into the “Pause,” I will stick with what my 14 Day Average Forecast says. It predicts a lower case count for 12/14, but if the “Pause” is working, then we should see a continued decline.
My prediction: 8400 cases
Passaic County (New Jersey)
12/7 in Passaic County saw 2,592 new cases. A 0.89 spread rate from 11/30s 2,927. My prediction was 3,500. Wah wah…….
Passaic County’s Covid Case trend has been different from the other places I looked at. Their steady upward trend started in the first week of September. The only week that didn’t fall in line was 11/16 with a 0.94 spread rate. (The weeks before and after were 1.83 & 1.27)
Based on this trend and the explosive expansion we saw at Halloween, my formulas and I predicted 12/7 to have a much higher case count than it did. Instead, the spread rate went from 1.05 (11/30) to 0.89, about 335 less cases than the week before.
What is the cause of all this? I don’t know. People not getting tested? Lockdown procedures doing their job? I’d be shocked at the later, the first is more believable. Regardless, I doubt this will continue.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.04 Spread Rate = 2689 Cases
3 Week: 1.07 Spread Rate = 2772 Cases
2 Week: 0.97 Spread Rate = 2510 Cases
14 Day Average: 371 Avg= Cases 2594
7 Days Average: 370 Avg = Cases 2595
4 Week Average County Population % Increase: 0.43% Increase = 2142 Cases
I find it interesting that all my formulas seem to be honing in on a very narrow range of numbers.
MY PREDICTION
I’ll leave this one up to the formulas. The average of all the above comes out to 2550. However, I find that the 4 Week Average County Population formulas always on the low side. So removing that number…. 2632 is the average of the top five formulas.
Unless we see a sudden spike in Covid cases this week, which is very possible seeing as it takes two weeks for some people to see symptoms, I’d say this number is pretty good. It’s an increase from the previous week but it also stays in the cluster of case numbers we have seen these last few weeks.
2632 would be a spread rate of 1.02. More than 12/7 but in line with previous rises we have seen.
My prediction: 2632 Cases
COMING SOON: BOSTON