Update to 2/8 Accuracy:
There was a problem with the Rhode Island Data that was published last week. See the Rhode Island section below.
Actual accuracy rating for last week was 84.59
2/15 Accuracy:
Due to the Texas situation and Rhode Islands data issue, I only counted the predictions for Passaic and Boston. Accuracy Rating is 89.76%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Due to the winterstorm that basically brought Texas to its knees (far reaching power black outs for five straight days, no drinking water, icy roads for four days, lack of food, no fast food, cats and dogs living together!!!!) there were no case updates from the 13th to the 20th. The first day back to regular reporting was yesterday the 21st.
Actual: 271
MY PREDICTION
Key Factors to look at:
1. The storm severely disrupted Covid reporting for the whole state.
2. People were stranded in their homes as the roads were almost impossible to traverse for a couple days.
3. People were without power for almost the whole week. Those with power opened their homes to people without.
4. There were “warming shelters” opened throughout the city for the homeless and those who didn’t have power or places to stay.
5. Once the power was restored, the temps rose again. I personally witnessed the crowds at bars and walking around town over the weekend as people celebrated the end of the freak storm.
So what does this all mean?
First of all, the numbers for the next week, maybe two weeks will be all off. My prediction formulas will basically be useless after missing a whole week of data and I’ll be flying blind. The power outage will result in three, somewhat contradicting, events:
1. People who should have gotten tested never will, therefore their cases will not be counted
2. There will be an overflow of older test results from before the storm, but never submitted due to the storm, that will hit this coming week’s numbers. This causes an artificial spike.
3. People who would have gotten tested during the storm will get tested this week. Basically two weeks’ worth of results will happen in one week.
Second, the increased socialization has the potential to cause a slight spike in the coming week and a half.
Example: People staying at “warming shelters” or with friends who had heat, power and food & then the celebratory lunches, dinners, drinks and hangouts over the weekend.
All of this together points towards a higher case count for the coming week or so.
Prediction: 2400
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1400
Actual: 1167
Accuracy: 83.36%
Spread Rate for 2/15: 0.73
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.90 Spread Rate = 1049 Cases
3 Week: 0.88 Spread Rate = 1026 Cases
2 Week: 0.86 Spread Rate = 1009 Cases
14 Day Average: 198 Avg = 1387 Cases
7 Days Average: 167 Avg = 1167 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Currently there is snow on the ground in Passaic, NJ. There is a predicted mixture of snow and rain for tomorrow followed by three clear days and another weekend of potential storms. The weather, like last week, means reduced socialization and testing.
If this continues, Passaic may see its first sub-1000 case week since 10/26. But theres also the possibility that the cases plateau for a week like they did two weeks ago and result in a 1:1 spread.
Prediction: 950
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1300
Actual: 1352
Accuracy: 96.15%
Spread Rate for 2/15: 0.82
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.79 Spread Rate = 1074 Cases
3 Week: 0.79 Spread Rate = 1062 Cases
2 Week: 0.79 Spread Rate = 1063 Cases
14 Day Average: 214 Avg = 1500 Cases
7 Days Average: 193 Avg = 1352 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Temps are low in Boston this week, but the weather won’t be too bad overall. Boston is on a good downward trend. Look at the below graph, the cases aren’t dropping as fast anymore, we are approaching what I consider to be a realistic case range. Meaning, if it weren’t for the Holidays and all those social events, the cases would probably have sat in this range naturally.
The end of the Holiday season resulted in an immediate and quick descent in cases. The Spread Rate also dropped. Look at this graph as well.
The Spread Rate seems to sit in the 0.80 area. I’m curious if this is the natural Spread Rate for Boston…. Is it possible to have a Natural Spread Rate???? I’m gonna research this idea more.
Prediction: 1100
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Data Update Notice for 2/8
When I updated the data for 2/15 I realized that the data for 2/8 was different than what I had recorded. There were an additional 1688 cases accounted for that I didn’t have. This isn’t the first time that Rhode Island has done this to me. They seem to have a problem with reporting their numbers in a timely manner. Not to mention they had some weather that week, so it’s possible there was a delay in reporting.
Their initial report for 2/8 was 1003 cases.
The cases for 2/1 was 3186. (this number did not change when the new update came in)
I predicted cases for 2/15, based on the reported 1003, to be 1200. Basically a Spread Rate of 1.20. I did this because I thought the 1003 was artificially low due to weather. Turns out I was right to doubt the number.
So I won’t count this week for my accuracy rating.
But I will update my accuracy rating for 2/8s prediction. I predicted 2400 cases and the updated actual was 2237, so my accuracy rating for 2/8 is actually 93.21%
Actual 2/15: 2237
Spread Rate for 2/15: 0.83 (When compared to the updated numbers for 2/8)
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.81 Spread Rate = 1811 Cases
3 Week: 0.81 Spread Rate = 1808 Cases
2 Week: 0.84 Spread Rate = 1875 Cases
14 Day Average: 352 Avg = 2464 Cases
7 Days Average: 320 Avg = 2237 Cases
MY PREDICTION
I’m weary thanks to the data mishap last week. Just looking at all the weekly formulas and the weather forecast, I’d say the 1800 area is probable.
Forecast: 1800