Not the best week. Last weeks accuracy was 74.47%
Total Project Accuracy now at 85.23%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 2400
Actual: 1827
Accuracy: 76.13%
Spread Rate for 2/22: 6.74 (But it really doesn’t count since last week’s only recorded cases were 271 on Sunday)
Also, 2/28 only had 19 cases reported? Compared to the 7 day average of 261. So there’s a chance that data may change in the future like It has in Rhode Island a few times.
FORMULA FORECASTS
Formulas are basically useless this week, and probably next week, since there was barely any data recorded the week of the 15th thanks to the storm.
MY PREDICTION
Again, the storm really messed up all the data. Austin was on a good decline trend since 1/11.
2/8 only had 5 reporting days and recorded 1707 cases. (Would have been around 2300 cases if the two empty days recorded)
2/15 only had 1 reporting day and recorded 271 cases.
2/22 had 7 reporting days and recorded 1827 cases.
I expected 2/22 to be higher than 2/15 only my prediction was too high. But, if we look at the Rate of Decay from 2/8 (if it was 2300) to 2/22, we may be able to predict a decline of 250ish case next week.
Again, the data is all messed up so this one is more of a stab in the dark until a get a few consecutive weeks together again.
Prediction: 1600
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 950
Actual: 1201
Accuracy: 79.10%
Spread Rate for 2/22: 1.03
2/15 case count was 1167. Cases went up. Curious enough, the town has be holding sporting events last week and allowing parents to attend certain events.
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.92 Spread Rate = 1101 Cases
3 Week: 0.92 Spread Rate = 1104 Cases
2 Week: 0.88 Spread Rate = 1054 Cases
14 Day Average: 169 Avg = 1184 Cases
7 Days Average: 172 Avg = 1201 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Turns out the snow didn’t deter enough social interaction last week. Spread Rate went up by 0.03%
Didn’t I call this last week? I said the cases in Passaic like to plateau for two weeks then drop again. Did I just find a pattern? Only way to find out!
Last plateau was 2/1 & 2/8 when the cases stayed around 1600 and then dropped 440 cases. Before that the plateau was 1/18 & 1/25 when cases sat around 1800 then dropped 160.
Cases are either going to go up again as restrictions roll back and people socialize more, or they will drop like the last two plateaus.
Prediction: 1100
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1100
Actual: 1490
Accuracy: 73.83%
Spread Rate for 2/22: 1.10
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.86 Spread Rate = 1288 Cases
3 Week: 0.89 Spread Rate = 1328 Cases
2 Week: 0.96 Spread Rate = 1433 Cases
14 Day Average: 203 Avg = 1421Cases
7 Days Average: 213 Avg = 1490 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Cases went up by 138. Not exactly what I expected. However I was curious last week if we might hit a Plateau in multiple cities as we hit a “Natural” case number. Meaning the virus was always going to get up to this number, but all the holidays caused a spike these last few months and we are now getting back down to “normal”.
Don’t ask why, but I think cases will go down slightly next week as the cold weather continues.
Prediction: 1300
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 1800
Actual: 2615
Accuracy: 68.83%
Spread Rate for 2/22: 1.17
2/15 was 2237, what are you guys doing over there???
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.90 Spread Rate = 2349 Cases
3 Week: 0.95 Spread Rate = 2480 Cases
2 Week: 1.00 Spread Rate = 2615 Cases
14 Day Average: 347 Avg = 2426 Cases
7 Days Average: 374 Avg = 2615 Cases
MY PREDICTION
I’ll be honest, I don’t know. Cases were at 2691 for 2/8, then 2237, then 2615. Based on this, I think the cases will stay in this range. The state is easing restrictions right now, so cases won’t drop but I doubt they will spike again. Unless you guys go crazy out there.
Prediction: 2300