Last week’s accuracy rating was 82.93.
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 1600
Actual: 1002
Accuracy: 62.63%
Spread Rate for 3/1: 0.55
FORMULA FORECASTS
Week Forecasts are still all off due to the storm.
14 Day Average: 202 Avg = 1415 Cases
7 Days Average: 143 Avg = 1002 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Quick:
No Masks in Texas anymore. Austin will probably stick with masks for a little while longer.
Looks like we are starting to see the effect of that ice storm and cold weather. Preventing people from going out entirely stops the spread.
No masks + a two week waiting period from the storm = Small Spike.
Prediction: 1350
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1100
Actual: 1491
Accuracy: 73.78%
Spread Rate for 3/1: 1.24
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.00 Spread Rate = 1491 Cases
3 Week: 1.00 Spread Rate = 1490 Cases
2 Week: 1.14 Spread Rate = 1693 Cases
14 Day Average: 192 Avg = 1346 Cases
7 Days Average: 213 Avg = 1491 Cases
MY PREDICTION
7 Day average is higher than the 14 day average, it’s a sign that the case numbers have been rising over the last week.
This is the highest Spread Rate since Thanksgiving Week.
Looks like the reduction in restrictions + Covid Fatigue is taking its toll on Passaic. People are spreading more.
All formulas point to high 1400s. I’ll go with that.
Prediction: 1450
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1300
Actual: 1337
Accuracy: 97.23%
Spread Rate for 3/1: 0.90
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.89 Spread Rate = 1194 Cases
3 Week: 0.94 Spread Rate = 1257 Cases
2 Week: 1.00 Spread Rate = 1337 Cases
14 Day Average: 202 Avg = 1414 Cases
7 Days Average: 191 Avg = 1337 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Looking at the 7 Day average again we see it’s lower than the 14 day. Hopefully this means the cases will continue a decline. Even with the slightly higher cases during 2/22, this past week’s cases are below 2/15s.
Looking at the decline over the last 4 weeks we can see a steady drop. This is why I am going to stick with my 4WASR forecast of 1194.
Prediction: 1150
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 2300
Actual: 2345
Accuracy: 98.08%
Spread Rate for 3/1: 0.90
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.94 Spread Rate = 2194 Cases
3 Week: 0.97 Spread Rate = 2265 Cases
2 Week: 1.03 Spread Rate = 2422 Cases
14 Day Average: 354 Avg = 2480 Cases
7 Days Average: 335 Avg = 2345 Cases
MY PREDICTION
All forecasts together get an average of 2341 which would be a 1.00 Spread Rate. But again, looking at the past 4 weeks we are seeing a decline. I’ll stick with the 4WASR forecast again.
Prediction: 2100