Last weeks accuracy was: 81.64%
Project Accuracy is now: 84.97%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction: 1350
Actual: 847
Accuracy: 62.74%
Spread Rate for 3/8: 0.85
Actual numbers hit lower than expected. But I think this is because the weather has been nice and people have been outside more. I can attest to this first hand.
FORMULA FORECASTS
2 Week: 0.70 Spread Rate = 590 Cases
14 Day Average: 132 Avg = 925 Cases
7 Days Average: 121 Avg = 847 Cases
MY PREDICTION
I have no idea. Before the ice storm the cases were 1707, then we got a slight spike as two weeks of reporting rolled into one and 2/22 reported 1827 cases. Then the drop to 1002 cases and another drop to 847 cases.
So I think that Storm, like I predicted, significantly halted Covid spread. But I was wrong when I predicted the reopening measures increasing the case numbers. I predicted it too early. AS we know, there is a lag time with symptoms and a lag time with test results. So if there was any spreading this week we probably wouldn’t start to see it until next week.
Prediction: 950
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1450
Actual: 1565
Accuracy: 92.65%
Spread Rate for 3/8: 1.05
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.01 Spread Rate = 1583 Cases
3 Week: 1.11 Spread Rate = 1732 Cases
2 Week: 1.15 Spread Rate = 1793 Cases
14 Day Average: 218 Avg = 1528 Cases
7 Days Average: 224 Avg = 1565 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Passaic cases have been gradually ticking upward, spread is up 400 cases since 2/15. The average increase is around 133 a week. By that math we could see cases next week hit 1698. My guess is the Spread Rate will sit between the 4WASR prediction of 1.01 and the 3WASR of 1.11.
Prediction: 1650
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1150
Actual: 1289
Accuracy: 82.22%
Spread Rate for 3/8: 0.96
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.95 Spread Rate = 1220 Cases
3 Week: 0.99 Spread Rate = 1273 Cases
2 Week: 0.93 Spread Rate = 1200 Cases
14 Day Average: 188 Avg = 1313 Cases
7 Days Average: 184 Avg = 1289 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Last week my 3WASR and 2WASR were the closest to the actual case count. The week before that my 3WASR was close too. I’ll stay in the area….
Prediction: 1200
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Once again, RI is the problem child of data. There are unreported days (13 & 14) the daily average was 340 a day.
I’ll have to update the numbers later this week to see what happened.
Prediction: 2100
Actual: 1721 (2361 with continued daily average)
Accuracy: 81.95% (88.95% with continued daily average)
Spread Rate for 3/8: 0.73 (1.01 with continued daily average)
FORMULA FORECASTS
Since the week was missing some reports, I’ll skip the weekly forecasting and show you something else I’m working on.
The “Untouched” helper.
RIs population is roughly 1.009Million. So far RI has vaccinated 374,193 people. There has been a total of 132,366 Covid Cases. Which means that out of 1,009,904 people- 506,559 people are potentially unable to contract Covid. (Yes I know, those who had it can get it again, and there’s a new strain and all that stuff. But this isn’t an exact science. There could also be old case + new vaccine overlap. Stick with me here.)
1,009,904 – 506,559 = 503,345 People who are capable of contracting the virus.
So what I have been doing is using a running tally of all those “Touched” by Vaccinations and the virus, subtracting them from Gen Pop and getting an “Untouched” estimate. From there I can calculate, based of prior week’s Virus Spread, what a next week’s Covid Cases could be. Keep in mind this isn’t fully fleshed out and I’m working on a worse case scenario.
1WUSP (1 Week Untouched Spread Predictor): 1533
2WUSP: 1703
3WUSP: 1771
Basically, these are saying that based on the current Covid Case increases and the Vaccination Rates, those numbers are the potential new Covid cases.
MY PREDICTION
Without those last two days of reported cases, its hard to get reliable predictions. I have predictions as low as 1533 and as high as 2418. (When accounting with and without the daily averages to fill in the missing days)
I’ll update the numbers later this week, but based on the trend I’ve been seeing….
Prediction: 2150