Florida v. California: Part 2

The following data was accumulated from The Covid19 Tracking Project by The Atlantic.

I realized I forgot a very important aspect of my comparison: Percent of State Population with Covid.

As the graphs in my previous post will show you, the virus is mostly the same in both states, the spread rates are similar, the Death % was similar, though Cali had a spike, overall the virus acts the same from coast to coast. And while that in itself is interesting, it didn’t tell me how the virus actually affected the states population.

The following graph is based on the percentage of the states population with Covid at any given date from March 6th, 2020 to January 17 2021.

As you’ll see, the states start off similar until June when Florida jumps by a full percent higher than California. As you may remember, Florida started to re-open around May 18th.

The thing I find very interesting is that the two lines converge again in January, meaning the states hit the same population percentage. After that, Florida falls behind as California continues to climb.

I am purely a sideline speculator when it comes to this, I’m doing it for the data. As you may know from a previous post, I had Covid during Christmas. There was a formal positive test and everything, I had all the symptoms and even had a symptom that only 30% of people report; eye socket soreness.

But it does interest me to see that a closed state (Cali) and an open state (Florida) have intersected instead of separating like you think they would.

So I ask you Californians, what on earth are you doing?

1/18 Update and 1/25 Predictions

So I shot a little too high in my predictions last week. Based on all the historical data for holiday spikes and then the double holiday at the end of the year, I thought there would be a three week case spike. But as you will see below, last week saw a case drop in all locations. Potentially a sign of Covid spread decline due to the lack of social gathering holidays. The next ‘big’ holiday is Valentine’s Day, and if you do that with more than one other person….you might be from Utah.

Ooooooh, I should track Utah case spikes after Valentine’s day…..

Overall weeks Accuracy: 79.21%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 5840

Actual: 4181

Accuracy: 71.59%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.85

Austin dropped by 731 cases last week, roughly 15% from last week. If this continues then that would make the week of 1/11 the highest one week increase ever for Austin. Hopefully we continue to see a steady decline in case increases, anything with a spread rate lower than 1.00 is good.

If next week has a spread rate of 0.85 again then we would have 3559 cases. The spread rate would have to stay at 0.85 for 51 weeks before Austin saw 0 cases a week….Shit, that number hurts.

Side note, the last time we saw less than 1000 cases a week was the week of 11/2 with 948 cases. Hopefully we can get back down to those numbers soon.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.10 Spread Rate =          4619 Cases

3 Week:               1.07 Spread Rate =          4480 Cases

2 Week:               1.05 Spread Rate =          4403 Cases

14 Day Average:               649 Avg =             4546 Cases

7 Days Average:                597 Avg =             4181 Cases

Note: The 7 Days Average dropped by 104 in 7 days.

MY PREDICTION

All of those Weekly forecasts are above 1.00, I think those numbers are a little high. As we know, the social season is over, now comes the depressive “There’s Nothing to Celebrate, Maybe I’ll Take Up Drinking Alone At Home” season.

If the 7 Day Average Drops by 104 again, the case count for next week would be 3453.

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.85, the case count for next week would be 3554.

I might be overly hopeful, but I’d like to think these numbers are close to what might actually happen.

Prediction: 3600

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 2000

Actual: 1842

Accuracy: 92.10%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.91

Passaic was my closest forecast, but they still hit lower than expected. Last week was huge drop off from the counties highest of 4866 on January 4th. Last week was 2.64 times lower, but still only 174 cases lower than the week of 1/18.

Passaic county would have to stay at a Spread Rate of 0.91 for 79 weeks before there were 0 new cases.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.39 Spread Rate =          2564 Cases

3 Week:               1.58 Spread Rate =          2908 Cases

2 Week:               0.66 Spread Rate =          1223 Cases

14 Day Average:               276 Avg =             1929 Cases

7 Days Average:                                263 Avg =             1842 Cases

These numbers are all over the place.

Note: The 7 Day Average dropped by 25 in 7 days.

MY PREDICTION

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.91, next week cases will be 1683.

If the 7 Day Average drops by 25 again, next week cases will be 1667.

But Passaic hasn’t been consistently below a Spread Rate of 1.00 since June and that was only for 5 weeks. So it’s hard to tell what’s going to happen. I think I’ll stick with my gut and say that the cases will continue to go down. I’ll use my Day Average to help guide me.

Prediction: 1600

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 4600

Actual: 3401

Accuracy: 73.93%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.81

Bahston….looks like you finally stopped sending people out to get your Dunkies and decided to brew your own coffee at home. Probably for the best. Dunkin, it’s nothing personal, you know I love you and I miss you.

This is the lowest case increase in 7 weeks. The lowest prior was 1966 during the week of Thanksgiving, the following week had a spike reaching 3810.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.02 Spread Rate =          3484 Cases

3 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =          3373 Cases

2 Week:               0.80 Spread Rate =          2737 Cases

14 Day Average:               544 Avg =             3811 Cases

7 Days Average:                486 Avg =             3401 Cases

Note: The 7 Day Average dropped 117 from last week.

MY PREDICTION

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.81, next week’s cases will be 2741.

If the 7 Day Average drops by 117 again, next week’s cases will be 2582.

I suspect the Spread Rate will be below 1.00, however, given that Bostons Spread Rate has consistently been above 1.00 for months, I don’t think the Spread Rate will stay at 0.81. So I’ll split the difference.

The 3WASR (0.99) and 2WASR (0.81) average out to 3055 cases.

Prediction: 3000

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 6600

Actual: 5229

Accuracy: 79.23%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.61

Data Update Notice: When I looked at the Rhode Island numbers, I noticed that there was reported cases on 1/16 & 1/17. When I published the update last Monday, these cases were not in the spread sheet I generate my formulas from. However, when I look at the spread sheet I used for the California vs Florida breakdown, those dates have numbers.  My guess is there was a late update sometime last week. My experience with this project is that Rhode Island has a hard time actually submitting their data on time. If I’m being completely honest, this lost data probably made my accuracy better….

The case count for 1/11 was actually 8610. Making this past week a 3381 case drop.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.05 Spread Rate =          5497 Cases

3 Week:               0.94 Spread Rate =          4905 Cases

2 Week:               0.91 Spread Rate =          4738 Cases

14 Day Average:               989 Avg =             6919 Cases

7 Days Average:                747 Avg =             5229 Cases

Note: The 7 Day Average dropped by 264.

MY PREDICTION

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.61 (unlikely) then next week’s cases would be 3176. (Last time the cases were that low was 10/26, and that was at the beginning of a spike from Halloween that never really ended for the state.)

If the7 Day Average drops by 264, next week’s cases would be 1848. Even more unlikely.

I could be hitting too high here, but I think the spread rate will be closer to 0.90. I say this because 0.61 was a huge drop and is fueled by the previous week being the state’s second highest weekly increase ever. I think the spread rate will even out before steadily dropping again.

Prediction: 4700

Florida vs. California: Open vs. Closed

I was asked by a friend in California to compare his closed state to an open state, say…Florida. He wanted to know how to two states compared, I was curious as well.

Below is some comparison work I did. All the Data I used comes from ‘The Covid Tracking Project by The Atlantic’ I use this Data because it has been on par with the data I have used in my other analytics. My friend did point out to me that the data from The Atlantic does not 100% line up with John Hopkins University. I will probably look into that in the future and do a comparison of data post.

Keep in mind there is still many variables at play here. There are tons of numbers I can look at and formulas I can play with. There are also a lot of formulas I need to research. But….Its lunch time on a Saturday and I’m ready to Send It on my bike.

This will be a topic I will be coming back to in the future.

Screenshots of my work are below. But you can also download the PDF HERE

1/11 Update and 1/18 Predictions: I'm on a roll baybayyyy!

Last weeks total Prediction Accuracy was 91.33%

My total accuracy rating for this little project is now 85.29%.... Almost 1% higher than last week.

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 5000

Actual: 4912

Accuracy: 98.24%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 1.25

The county didn’t report any new cases on the 12th. However, there was a spike in case counts for the next two days, I assume that spike was actually all the cases that came in on the 12th and went unreported. Or maybe the county didn’t do testing on that day and there was an influx of tests being done on the 13th and 14th. Either way doesn’t matter, my prediction was right….and I’m oh so humble about it.

Something to be noted is that last week’s case increase was the highest case increase in a single week since 4th of July week.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.13 Spread Rate =          5561 Cases

3 Week:               1.19 Spread Rate =          5842 Cases

2 Week:               1.18 Spread Rate =          5804 Cases

14 Day Average:               630.43   Avg =     4413 Cases

7 Days Average:                                702         Avg =     4912 Cases

Last week the closest prediction was the 4WASR. It predicted 4541 cases compared to the actual 4912, a 7.55% error.

It should also be noted that the 7 & 14 Day averages have been rising steadily for the last couple weeks. They are both at their all-time highs.

MY PREDICTION

Last week’s Spread Rate was 1.25. As discussed in last week’s post, Austin saw a 3 week spike after Halloween and Thanksgiving. And I suspect that the double holiday we just celebrated could cause a slightly elongated spike this time around, say 4 weeks. 1/18 is the third week.

If this week sees another 1.25 Spread rate we would get: 6164 cases

That number is actually pretty close to our 3 & 2 WASR formulas. So maybe I will stick with my 3WASR prediction.

Prediction: 5840

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 2000

Actual: 2016

Accuracy: 99.21%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 0.41

Last week’s case count was 4886 which was a huge spike from previous weeks. That Monday (1/4) had 2973 cases alone, so I knew it had something to do with a reporting and testing result delays. The week prior was only 1428 cases, but I knew we were going to be looking at a natural spike, which is why I predicted 2000.

Backing up my claim that those 2973 cases are more of a result/data dump on a single day…. Our lowest spread rate in the last few months was 0.81. If those 2973 cases were real cases then last week should have seen far more than 2016 new cases and a spread rate of 0.41.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.37 Spread Rate =          2753 Cases

3 Week:               1.55 Spread Rate =          3128 Cases

2 Week:               1.91 Spread Rate =          3852 Cases

14 Day Average:               492         Avg =     3441 Cases

7 Days Average:                                288         Avg =     2016 Cases

Just like last week, my forecasting formulas are going to be way off thanks to the 4886 cases from Jan 4th.

MY PREDICTION

As I said before, the formulas are skewed from that test result spike.

Looking at Halloween and Thanksgiving, Passaic County only had a spike lasting 2 weeks both times. So I think Christmas/New Years will see a 3 week spike. Meaning we are approaching our last week of this proposed spike.

Purely looking at the last two weeks, and factoring out those 2973 cases in a single day, we can see the weekly numbers landing around 2000. My guess would be that next week will land around that number again. Maybe even climb shortly.

Prediction: 2000….again

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 6000

Actual: 4220

Accuracy: 70.33%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 0.80

Boston was my worst prediction last week. I predicted a spike and we actually got a drop. So maybe we will see the case counts continue to drop or even level out. Last week saw 1033 less cases than the previous week, this is promising!

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.04 Spread Rate =          4371 Cases

3 Week:               1.10 Spread Rate =          4631 Cases

2 Week:               1.08 Spread Rate =          4577 Cases

14 Day Average:               677         Avg =     4737 Cases

7 Days Average:                                603         Avg =     4220 Cases

All formulas seem to point at a slight tick upward, yet stay near last week’s numbers.

MY PREDICTION

So Boston pulled a fast one and made a nice recovery. However, historical Holiday spikes tell me that holidays typically effect 3 weeks. So I’m actually going to side with my formulas here and say there will be a slight tick upward next week. But overall, my guess is that these numbers will start to decline over the next few months.

Prediction: 4600

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 7000

Actual: 6829

Accuracy: 97.56%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 0.96

I was 2.44% off from predicting an entire states Covid Case increase….

Also, last week Rhode Island officially surpassed 100,000 cases. That’s 1/10th of its population.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.04 Spread Rate =          7108 Cases

3 Week:               1.12 Spread Rate =          7622 Cases

2 Week:               0.98 Spread Rate =          6683 Cases

14 Day Average:               998 Avg =             6987 Cases

7 Days Average:                                976 Avg =             6829 Cases

Only the 4WASR formula has been notably close the last two weeks. And even that doesn’t mean much.

MY PREDICTION

Holiday spikes in Rhode Island last almost three weeks. I predict this one to last three weeks which means we are entering our last week.

That being said, last week saw 316 less cases than the week before, so while the spike results in high weekly case counts, we may actually start to see a decline/ leveling off of that spike.

Rhode Island has been a notoriously bad state with the spread rate being higher than the other 3 places I’ve been looking at. So while history tells me we should be seeing a decline coming, I almost feel like the numbers won’t dip too much.

Prediction: 6600

1/4 Update and 1/11 Predictions

Current total accuracy rating: 84.49%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Last week’s numbers didn’t hit the mark but the county also failed to report any cases on Jan 10th. Then Jan 11th cases were a bit higher than usual, so I think they just didn’t get the numbers in on time on the 10th???

My prediction was for 4900 cases, the actual was 3914. 79.87% accuracy.

Just for giggle let’s pretend the 10th got the daily average number of cases …. The daily average (1/4-1/9)  was 652. So 3914 + 652 = 4566 which is 93.18% accuracy.

Not bad! Makes me wonder what happened on the 10th?

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:    1.16 Spread Rate =      4541 Cases

3 Week:   1.09 Spread Rate =       4271 Cases

2 Week:  1.16 Spread Rate =        4526 Cases

14 Day Average:  531.86 Avg =    3723 Cases

7 Days Average:   559 Avg =         3914 Cases

The 2WASR forecast has actually been pretty close the last two weeks. It forecasted 3413 for 12/28, the actual was 3532. Then last week it forecasted 3825.

The 4WASR was also pretty good. It forecasted 3448 for 12/28 and 4030 for last week.

MY PREDICTION

12/28 had a 1.20 Spread rate.

1/4/21 had a 1.11 Spread Rate. If the daily average was reported on the 10th, the spread rate would be 1.29.

So while this past weeks numbers were low, I think it actually has to do with a reporting error. The case count for the 11th is 955, higher than the average, which tells me that the non-reported cases from last week will carry over into this week.

Seeing as the 4WASR and the 2WASR have been pretty good these last two weeks, I am going to look at their forecasts. But, I have to add on what I assume are last weeks missing numbers. So while the 4WASR forecast is for 4541, I’m going to go for 5000.

Prediction: 5000

Spread Rate

Weekly: Daily Case Averages

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

These numbers were double what I expected. I forecasted 2500 cases, but the actual was 4566.

However, the 4th saw 2973 new cases reported. But the daily average for the rest of the week (5th – 10th) was only 316. Replacing the super high numbers on the 4th and replacing them with the daily average gets me 2208 cases and an accuracy of 88.34%.

But that’s not the real world, so what happened?

Well I think this is the influx of cases we get from the Holidays. From personal experience I know that it takes a few days to get results from the test. I also know that human nature says, “Let’s go out and parrrrrtaaaaaay.” So I think two things happened.

First, there is a delay in results from people getting tested from the 1st to the 3rd, those results come in on the 4th and inflate that week’s numbers. Second, I’d be willing to bet there was an influx of testing and positive tests due to all the holiday shenanigans. People party with someone at Christmas or New Year’s, a few days later they find out their friend at the party was exposed and now they need to get tested. So that huge number on Monday can be people who were exposed at Christmas but didn’t know yet.

So what’s my accuracy? Well it could be 51.37% (2500/4866) or it could be 88.34% (2208/2500)

I’ll take the ‘L’ on this one, but to be fair….I was also kind of right.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.47 Spread Rate =          7137 Cases

3 Week:               1.68 Spread Rate =          8189 Cases

2 Week:               2.12 Spread Rate =          10318 Cases

14 Day Average:               450 Avg =             3147 Cases

7 Days Average:                                695 Avg =             4866 Cases

These numbers are all super off thanks to that crazy spike on the 4th.

MY PREDICTION

Last week’s Spread Rate was 3.41. Which we can probably label as a freak event thanks to the Holidays and maybe a backlog of test results?

For 4 weeks prior to Christmas/New Years, the Spread Rate in Passaic County has been hovering around 0.84. So each week there was a steady decline in the case increase. Next week we may see a crazy low spread rate as the case increase peaks with the Holidays. OR….it halves as now there are more infected people in the area and we see 2500ish cases instead of the sub 2000 case count the previous weeks saw.

This prediction is tough. Theres more infected people to go out and infect others. But I also don’t know the actual reason for the spike, if it’s a back log and reporting issue, then it has no effect on the real world spread rate. Regardless, I predicted the Holidays would be responsible for a spike over the next two weeks. So, ignoring all my forecasts and going with my gut here….

Prediction: 2000

Spread Rate Actuals

Passaic Actual Spread Rates Compared to Forecasts

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

I did pretty good in Suffolk. I predicted 5000 cases, the actual was 5253. Accuracy of 95.18%!!

Boston gave me no real surprises. The daily case count was higher than previous weeks (as predicted). And all days are accounted for. Good job guys. Go get yourselves a coffee at Dunks. On me.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.09 Spread Rate =          5712 Cases

3 Week:               1.11 Spread Rate =          5849 Cases

2 Week:               1.24 Spread Rate =          6537 Cases

14 Day Average:               680 Avg =             4758 Cases

7 Days Average:                                800 Avg =             5603 Cases

I should probably note that none of the formulas have been notably close to hitting the right numbers in the past few weeks.

MY PREDICTION

Last week’s Spread Rate was 1.37, the previous week was 1.12 and the weeks before that sat at around 1.01ish. Just as I thought, a spike around the Holidays. But what now? When does the spike flatten out and start to dip? Well with no upcoming Holidays, I predict things to head back down soon. But I could see this week’s numbers looking close to last weeks as Boston begins to flatten out. So maybe the 4WASR and 3WASR formulas have a point?

Harking back to Halloween and Thanksgiving, both Holidays saw a two week spike and then slope back to Spread Rates of 0.95-1.00. Seeing as Christmas and New Year’s kind of sit on top of each other, I think all states/cities may see a three-plus week spike. Kind of like compounding interest on a bad loan.

All the formulas are close to the 6000 mark. And given the pattern of past holidays I’d be willing to say that’s a good mark to aim for.

Prediction: 6000

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Rhode Island also didn’t exactly hit my number, but it didn’t entirely disappoint. 5 out of 7 days last week saw over 1000 new cases each.

My prediction was for 9000, the actual was 7145. 79.39% accuracy.

The state reported cases on all days and no day was any more unusual than another.

Also, as of January 11th, the state has surpassed 100,000 Covid Cases reported. That’s one-tenth the state’s population. Meaning if you know 10 people in Rhode Island, odds are that you know one person who has had Covid.

Also also, I’ve been following the Case Count Doubling timeline.

Apr 10: Cases Doubled in 5 days

Apr 19: Cases Doubled in 9 days

May 6: Cases Doubled in 17 days (10638 cases)

Aug 24: Cases Doubled in 110 days

Nov 14: Cases Doubled in 82 days

Dec 28: Cases Doubled in 44 days (85601 cases)

The next predicted Doubling is in roughly 80 days. But that’s only if there are 7000+ cases a week for the next three months. Unless I’m looking at this wrong…It looks like the doubling may have peaked in December. If the cases really do start to slope down as I predict, there won’t be another Doubling for over 120 days.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =          7045 Cases

3 Week:               1.07 Spread Rate =          7639 Cases

2 Week:               1.20 Spread Rate =          8547 Cases

14 Day Average:               1020 Avg =          7140 Cases

7 Days Average:                                1021 Avg =          7145 Cases

Again, no formula has been notably accurate in the last few weeks.

MY PREDICTION

Looking at Halloween and Thanksgiving again…Halloween had a 3 week Spread Rate spike and Thanksgiving had 2ish weeks. Again, Christmas and New Year’s being so close together may spark a 3 week spike. But, last week’s spike was not as big as I expected. Last week’s Spread Rate was almost exactly 1.00. So maybe we will see another 1.00 week before a slow creep downward. OR….. Rhode Island goes crazy next week and everyone infects 5 people each….

Prediction: 7000

BONUS!!!!

I’ve been looking at Rhode Islands Testing results as well. Specifically tracking the Positive % compared to total tests for the week. Take a look at this chart.

12/21 Update and 1/4 Predictions

I haven’t been updating these last two weeks because I actually ended up getting Covid. Turns out my tracker couldn’t give me the heads up….

The last week I ran predications for was 12/21, Christmas week. And I did pretty well! My prediction accuracy for the whole week was 93.38%!!!

Bringing my total overall accuracy up to 83.72%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

12/21 Prediction: 3000

Actual: 2932

Accuracy: 97.73%

12/28 Actual: 3532

I noticed that the 4WASR (4 Week Average Spread Rate) forecasting formula has been pretty close the last few weeks.

Week:   (Prediction | Actual)

12/28:   3448 | 3532

12/21:   3528 | 2932 ***Prediction with my “Holiday Math” comes to 2520***

12/14:   2523 | 3051

12/7:      2712 | 2232

I’ll be looking at the 4WASR forecast for the coming weeks.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.14  Spread Rate =       4030 Cases

3 Week: 1.18  Spread Rate =        4159 Cases

2 Week: 1.08 Spread Rate =         3825 Cases

14 Day Average:  497 Avg =          3481 Cases

7 Days Average:  505 Avg =          3532 Cases

Those weekly averages seem to be predicting a very specific cluster of cases. While the 14 and 7 day averages are only off by 51 cases.

MY PREDICTION

The week of 12/21 only recorded Covid cases for 5 of the 7 days (71%). If we calculate what 2932 is 71% of, we get 4130.

The week of 12/28 only recorded Covid cases for 6 of the 7 days (86%). If we calculate what 3532 is 86% of, we get 4107

December saw a climb in cases almost every week.

12/1- 2164           12/7-2232            12/14-3051          12/21-2932 (or 4130)       12/28-3532 (or 4107)

If we calculate the 4WASR but use the estimated totals instead of the Holiday affected totals, we get a Spread Rate of 1.19 for the week of 1/4/21. Against the Estimated 4107 total from 12/28, that means the 4WASR estimate for 1/4/21 is 4873.

I will agree with this number. I think we will see a spike in cases due to Holiday gatherings. I’d even argue the number of cases could be higher than 4873. This spike could last two or three weeks before finally leveling out. Hopefully, the lack of any meaningful Holidays coming up (Valentine’s Day is fake) means the Spread Rate will start to level off and trend downwards.

Prediction: 4900 cases for 1/5

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

12/21 Prediction: 1500

Actual: 1714

Accuracy: 87.51%

12/28 Actual: 1428

Passaic reported cases on all days, including Christmas Eve/Day and New Years.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:   0.84 Spread Rate =       1194 Cases

3 Week:   0.82 Spread Rate =       1171 Cases

2 Week:   0.82 Spread Rate =        1172 Cases

14 Day Average:   224 Avg =         1571 Cases

7 Days Average:   204 Avg =         1428 Cases

The weekly averages being lower than the daily averages may be hinting at a spike coming with the Holidays.

MY PREDICTION

Passaic recorded cases on all days, so I won’t have to do any creative accounting.

However, that doesn’t mean that people getting tested was lower due to the Holidays. I got sick on Christmas Eve and waited until Saturday to get tested. So numbers can still be low. Not to mention I have suspected there will be a delayed boom as people travel and gather for the holidays.

The weeks leading to the holidays saw case increases like: (12/1-12/14) 2927, 2592, and 2122. Which was trending down already.

My formulas don’t support this idea but I believe there will be a spike from the Holidays.

My prediction: 2500 cases

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

12/21 Prediction: 3361

Actual: 3425

Accuracy: 98.13%

12/28 Actual: 3846

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:   1.01 Spread Rate =       3875 Cases

3 Week:  0.99  Spread Rate =       3825 Cases

2 Week:  0.99 Spread Rate =        3797 Cases

14 Day Average:   553 Avg =         3872 Cases

7 Days Average:   609 Avg =         4262 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Both 12/21 & 12/28 were both missing one day of reporting.

So, following the same formulas… The estimated actuals would be:

12/28: 4487

12/21: 3996

Adding this to the Weekly Case counts in December we get: (11/30-12/28) 3810, 3985, 4023, 3996, 4487. So we can see a steady climb. The three weeks prior to the start of December were all hovering around 2000.

Using those numbers makes the current 4WASR forecast 1.05, 1.05 of the estimated 4487 = 4690.

But, staying in line with my other areas and my prediction of a spike, I believe this number may be closer to 5000.

Prediction: 5000 cases

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

12/21 Prediction: 4624

Actual: 5129

Accuracy: 90.15%

12/28 Actual: 7134

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  0.98 Spread Rate =        6960 Cases

3 Week:  0.98 Spread Rate =        6997 Cases

2 Week:  1.10 Spread Rate =         7869 Cases

14 Day Average:   876 Avg =         6132 Cases

7 Days Average:  1019 Avg =        7134 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Rhode Island reported cases for all holidays, so I won’t have to do any creative accounting.

Since Rhode Island introduced “The Pause” a few weeks ago, they saw cases go from 8903 & 8545 a week to 6293 then 5129. A significant decrease. Yet, on New Year’s Eve and the two days prior, the state saw daily cases of 1187, 1160 and 1592. The week of 12/28 had a total case count of 7134. So we can see the spike is already starting to happen.

I think Rhode Island will see numbers next week that are close to pre-“pause” numbers.

Looking at historical spikes and their spread rates we have the Week before Halloween (1.72), the Week after Halloween (1.27) and the week after Thanksgiving (1.50). Using these Spread Rates against 12/28s cases we get:

1.72= 12,244 Cases

1.27= 9073 Cases

1.50= 10,713 Cases

Also to be considered, I’ve been looking at the states Weekly Positive Test Averages.

This chart represents the Percent of Positive Cases compared to the Total amount of tests.

Overall I think we could be looking at anything between a 1.27 and 1.50 Spread Rate. But we also haven’t seen weekly case numbers surpass 8902 before…..so…..who knows.

Prediction: 9000 Cases

12/21 Predictions & Analyst (Austin, Passaic, Boston, Rhode Island)

These next two weeks will be interesting. I anticipate all states to have a spike as travel and socialization is up with the holidays, but I expect the reported cases to be way down as the holidays will disrupt testing and data updates. Also, there is a possibility that people will avoid testing as they plan visiting family.

That being said, last week’s prediction accuracy was 81.21%, raising my total accuracy from 70.14% to 78.91%. Wooooooo!

So my plan for this week is to just quickly analyze the data and trends then find what 5/7ths of that number may be (roughly 71.43%). The thought process being that there will be no testing on the holidays. Between those two numbers we should see the actual numbers fall in that range.

Then again, maybe we will see higher than normal numbers from previous weeks increased travel???

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TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Travis County ended up being higher than predicted, coming in at 3051 cases. A 36.7% increase from 12/7s 2232 cases. The spread rate went from 1.03 to 1.37.

This is easily from the increase in travel and socialization. Not to mention “Covid Fatigue”. So I was right about seeing an increase, but I shot too low.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.16 Spread Rate =        3528 Cases

3 Week:  1.25 Spread Rate =        3807 Cases

2 Week:  1.20 Spread Rate =        3659 Cases

14 Day Average:  377.36 Avg =    2641.5 Cases

7 Days Average:   436 Avg =         3051 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The Travis County Spread Rate has been creeping back up. See the chart above. My closest prediction model last week was the 2WASR (2 week average) with a prediction of 1.19, 2652 cases. That same model is now predicting a 1.20 spread rate or 3659 cases.

The Holiday Prediction (only counting 71.43% of the full prediction) is 2613 cases. That’s a wide gap, almost 1000 case gap. But considering the unpredicatableness of everything…..it is what it is.

So, Travis County Prediction for 12/21: 2613-3659. Maybe call it 3000 to be safe…

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PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Passaic hit lower numbers than I predicted with 2122 cases. This is the second week in a row that the cases and spread rates have declined. (I predicted a small spike this week). Spread Rates dropped as follows:

11/23- 1.27

11/30- 1.05

12/7- 0.89

12/14-0.82

I see a trend! And according to the graph below, it looks like the spread rate is dropping ever so slowly from the Halloween Massacre.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.01 Spread Rate =        2137 Cases

3 Week:  0.92 Spread Rate =        1949 Cases

2 Week:  0.85 Spread Rate =        1808 Cases

14 Day Average:  336.71 Avg =    2357 Cases

7 Days Average:  303 Avg =          2122 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The closest prediction formula for the actual case count last week was, again, the 2WASR with a prediction of 2510. But even that was nearly 400 too high. I now believe the new lockdown orders in the area may actually be doing something. Despite the fact that it is hurting many business owners that I know, which is hard to watch.

With this information and knowledge of local politics, we can assume the spread rate will continue to fall. But then there are all the Holiday gatherings. So the two might offset each other. Meaning the cases won’t spike, but they won’t exactly fall off either. For those reasons I will go with the 3WASR of 0.92 or 1949 cases.

The Holiday Prediction of that number is: 1403. But that’s not an exact science. (Who am I kidding? None of this is an exact science.) So let me add to that number. Why? Because I wanna!

My Prediction: 1500 cases (if there are no cases recorded on the Holidays)

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SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Suffolk County numbers were also down compared to predictions. New cases for the week were 4023, compared to the previous weeks 3985. The spread rate only increased 0.95%. But according to the graph below, the Spread Rate has been staying in a specific range where the average Spread Rate from the past 35 weeks is 1.04.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.23 Spread Rate =        4968 Cases

3 Week:  1.33 Spread Rate =        5355 Cases

2 Week:  1.03 Spread Rate =        4135 Cases

14 Day Average:  614.93 Avg =    4304.5 Cases

7 Days Average:  666.86  Avg =   4668 Cases ** This average hasn’t changed much since last week. Its increased, but not by much.

MY PREDICTION

The 7 day average hasn’t changed by much. But when compared to a week of cases, it comes out to a Spread Rate of 1.16, higher than last week. Given the Holidays, I’d say this number is possible.

Now for the Holiday Prediction formula….beep…boop….beep….boop……3361 Cases.

Sure lets go with that: 3361 Cases

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RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Admittedly I am not doing well with Rhode Island. You guys are all over the place. I predicted 8400, seeing as the previous two weeks were in the 8500 to 9000 range and you were going into another lockdown. Your actual was 6293….so good for you for getting that Spread Rate down! (0.74 for those actually playing along at home)

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.02 Spread Rate =        6423 Cases

3 Week:  1.07 Spread Rate =        6708 Cases

2 Week:  0.85 Spread Rate =         5338 Cases

14 Day Average:  1059.86 Avg =  7419 Cases ** This number has been declining since 12/13 where it hit its highest of 1259.

7 Days Average:   899 Avg =         6293 Cases **This number has been declining since 12/10 where it hit its highest of 1328

MY PREDICTION

Looking at the above graph, we can see the Spread Rate is declining since its spike in September. But I suspect the Holidays will stunt the decline. So I will be sticking with the 4WASR prediction of 1.02 or 6423 Cases.

With Holiday Prediction math……4624 Cases

December 14th Predictions Update

Travis County (Austin, Texas)

Prediction: 2660

Actual: 3051

Accuracy: 87.18%

Passaic County (New Jersey)

Prediction: 2632

Actual: 2,122

Accuracy: 80.62%

Rhode Island

Prediction: 8400

Actual: 6293

Accuracy: 74.92%

Suffolk County (Boston, Massachusetts)

Prediction: 4900

Actual: 4023

Accuracy: 82.10%

Total Prediction Accuracy: 78.91%

Suffolk County (Boston Mass) 12/14

Sweeeet Caroline…..BAH BAH BAH!

I’ve had Boston (Bahston) in my tracker for a little while now, but never seem to have the time to actually look at anything….and I still haven’t! But I had plenty of time to create a forecaster that looks three weeks into the future.

So I’ll just tell you what my formulas are telling me.

Dave, you suck… Thanks formulas......

HISTORICAL DATA (Spark Notes Edition)

Just like everywhere else, Boston had relatively “normal” / “Low” weekly numbers prior to Halloween. Even 4th of July was nothing of serious note. The cases rose by 30% (68 cases) the following week and hit a peak of 543 cases in the week of August 17th. Cases stayed in that general area until the week of October 12th when they jumped to 821 cases. Then 1188 cases the following week. Then the week of Halloween saw 1460 cases and the following weeks saw: 1646, 2115, 2078 and 1966.

The week of 11/9 was 2,115 cases. That’s FOUR TIMES the amount of cases in the second week of October which had 575 cases.

Since then the case count has barely dropped below 2000 a week. (1966 cases the week of 11/23) The biggest spike was the first week of December with 3,180 cases, 193% of the cases the week prior.

Then we get to the week of 12/7, 3,985 cases. Highest yet.

So what do our formulas tell us?

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week: 1.29 Spread Rate =  4907 Cases

3 Week: 1.29 Spread Rate =  4911 Cases

2 Week: 1.44 Spread Rate =  5494 Cases

14 Day Average: 580 Avg=   4057.5 Cases

7 Days Average: 655 Avg =   4586 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Admittedly, I’m cheating. This week is already at 1,011 cases in Suffolk County. That’s more cases on in the first two days of the week than any other recent week. With this in mind, the new 7 Day and 14 Day averages are:

7 Day- 666 | 4660 cases

14 Day- 620 | 4341.5 Cases

4300 Cases would be a 3.5% increase from last week. Last week’s increase was 4.6%. So the 14 Day Average Forecast actually looks close to reality. However, all my other formulas are forecasting a bigger increase. And my future model has the week of 12/21 increasing past 6000 or 7000 cases. I highly doubt that will actually be a recorded number seeing all the holidays delaying tests. Most likely the weeks after Christmas and New Year’s will see the brunt of all those missed tests. Especially with all the holiday travel coming up.

I’d say the high case count at the beginning of the week’s means my formulas are probably close to right. However, travel and holidays may delay the actual case recording.

Prediction: 4900 Cases

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AFTER NOTES:

Throwing all my Actual and Forecasted Spread rates into a graph, we can see that the Actual Spread Rate is steadily rising.

We also see that my weekly forecasts have stayed within the range of actuals. None of them have spiked outside of the “norm.”

And here is a graph where I lined up all the weekly forecasts. So The 4 Week Average is set back 4 weeks. The 3 Week set back 3 weeks and the 2 Week Average is set back 2 weeks.

December 14th Predictions: Travis County, Passaic County & the whole state of Rhode Island

Well last week’s predictions weren’t what I expected. My new accuracy rating for all predictions is now at 75.08%, down 11 points. Sheessssh…..See my previous post for all the prediction/actuals information for the week of 12/7.

Please note that I had a Data Quality issue with Rhode Island. It’s explained in the previous post.

I am now tracking FOUR different locations. I feel like I’m playing multiple spots at a blackjack table, except I suck at counting cards. Regardless, this is a great lesson in Data Analytics.

Travis County (Austin, Texas)

The week of 12/7 saw a case increase of 2,232. 68 cases or 0.03% more than the increase of 11/30. Making the weeks Spread Rate 1.03. The Four Week Average Spread Rate (4WASR) was 1.25.

The 4WASR has now been trending downward over the last 3 weeks.

11/23- 1.33

11/30- 1.27

12/7- 1.25

Previous to Halloween the 4WASR was sporadic and no week seemed to react to the previous. Then we saw it rise consistently from 0.97 to its peak of 1.33 from 10/26 to 11/23. Each week was higher than the previous. My prediction was that we would see a similarly consistent rise after Thanksgiving, adding to a growing wave of new cases; however that was not the case.

Curiously enough, the Two Week Average Spread Rate (2WASR) was the closest to the actual case count with a prediction of a 1.11 Spread Rate and 2410 cases (92.61% accuracy). The 2WASR is also on the decline; its peak was 1.47 for the week of 11/16.

Dave, does a Spread rate decline mean the virus is going away? Not yet. Any Spread Rate above 1.00 means there are more confirmed cases than the previous week had. So the total count keeps rising higher. Once the Spread Rate is below 1.00 then we will see less confirmed cases than the previous week. And a consistently declining Spread Rate below 1.00 is what we need to confirm the viruses Spread Rate is under control. However, all the data I use comes from other sources and is completely reliant on people getting tested and for the test results to be accurate. Meaning, there’s plenty of room for error. Like a large convention center amount of room for error. See last week for example.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week: 1.13 Spread Rate =         2523 Cases

3 Week: 1.09 Spread Rate =         2424 Cases

2 Week: 1.19 Spread Rate =         2652 Cases

14 Day Average: 290 Avg =           2032 Cases

7 Days Average: 319  Avg =          2232 Cases

4 Week Average County Population % Increase: 0.1181% Increase = 1505 Cases

MY PREDICTION

This week is tough, my confidence is shattered. But the show must go on. So Quick and Dirty…

My 4WASR says we are looking at a spread rate of 1.13, translating to 2523 new cases for 12/14. Given the downward trending spread rate over the last three weeks, I believe this number to be possible. However, that would be a 0.12 drop in the spread rate, a drop we haven’t seen before. So seeing as the 12/7 4WASR was 1.25 and the 12/14 4WASR is 1.13, I’ll average those out for a 1.19 spread rate. That spread rate would translate to 2,660 new cases. That number pretty much falls in line with all current trends.

So here goes nothing. My prediction for 12/14 is 2,660.

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Rhode Island (Yea…the whole state)

Well Rhode Island…you did it. The first week I analyze you and you outsmart me. If you see my previous post, you will see that I had a data quality issue with this state. Regardless, even with the new data, my formulas still overshot the mark by 3k.

Rhode Island’s Covid case count for 12/7 was 8545 with a spread rate of 0.96. Again, more than 300 less than the week before…. Something’s up with you East Coast-ers. But I will say, this slump in numbers comes just as the state instituted a ‘Pause’ to try and keep the spread rate down. So maybe its working??

4 Week Graph

3 Week Graph

2 Week Graph

When I throw my Forecasts and Actual Spread Rates in a Line Graph, I get a visual representation of how well the forecasts have done. So far they haven’t flown wildly out of line. (The graph starts at April 20th because that’s when we had enough data to run weekly forecasts)

I won’t spend much time on this one. Obviously I need to examine both formulas and local politics.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week: 1.13 Spread Rate =  9660 Cases

3 Week: 1.12 Spread Rate =  9531 Cases

2 Week: 1.23 Spread Rate =  10517 Cases

14 Day Average: 1200 Avg=   8398 Cases

7 Days Average: 1221 Avg =  8545 Cases

The 7 Day average declined from 1272 over the past week….or 7 days….

4 Week Average County Population % Increase: 0.59% Increase =  5969 Cases

MY PREDICTION

I’m going to blame bad data for last week’s fumble. However, my formulas still predicted a very high case number even with the new, high quality data. I’m going to keep analyzing the data to try and get a more accurate look at whats going on. However….

The average of the all formulas (except the County Population %) comes to 9330.25

That’s lower than the weekly forecasts, but still 800 more than 12/7s total case count.

So with this in mind, plus the states entry into the “Pause,” I will stick with what my 14 Day Average Forecast says. It predicts a lower case count for 12/14, but if the “Pause” is working, then we should see a continued decline.

My prediction: 8400 cases

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Passaic County (New Jersey)

12/7 in Passaic County saw 2,592 new cases. A 0.89 spread rate from 11/30s 2,927. My prediction was 3,500. Wah wah…….

Passaic County’s Covid Case trend has been different from the other places I looked at. Their steady upward trend started in the first week of September. The only week that didn’t fall in line was 11/16 with a 0.94 spread rate. (The weeks before and after were 1.83 & 1.27)

Based on this trend and the explosive expansion we saw at Halloween, my formulas and I predicted 12/7 to have a much higher case count than it did. Instead, the spread rate went from 1.05 (11/30) to 0.89, about 335 less cases than the week before.

What is the cause of all this? I don’t know. People not getting tested? Lockdown procedures doing their job? I’d be shocked at the later, the first is more believable. Regardless, I doubt this will continue.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week: 1.04 Spread Rate = 2689 Cases

3 Week: 1.07 Spread Rate =  2772 Cases

2 Week: 0.97  Spread Rate =  2510 Cases

14 Day Average: 371 Avg=   Cases 2594

7 Days Average: 370 Avg =   Cases 2595

4 Week Average County Population % Increase:  0.43% Increase =  2142 Cases

I find it interesting that all my formulas seem to be honing in on a very narrow range of numbers.

MY PREDICTION

I’ll leave this one up to the formulas. The average of all the above comes out to 2550. However, I find that the 4 Week Average County Population formulas always on the low side. So removing that number…. 2632 is the average of the top five formulas.

Unless we see a sudden spike in Covid cases this week, which is very possible seeing as it takes two weeks for some people to see symptoms, I’d say this number is pretty good. It’s an increase from the previous week but it also stays in the cluster of case numbers we have seen these last few weeks.

2632 would be a spread rate of 1.02. More than 12/7 but in line with previous rises we have seen.

My prediction: 2632 Cases

COMING SOON: BOSTON

12/7 Projection Updates

So this past week was not at all what I expected. I am now tracking four areas, though I only posted three predictions, and every area had a lower number than expected. But some of my formulas were pretty close to right!

Travis County (Austin, Texas)

Prediction: 3400

Actual: 2,232

Accuracy: 65.65%

Closest Formula: 2,410 – Two week average formula was the closest. Three and Four Weeks formula shot for higher numbers. Potentially signaling a slowdown in spread?

Passaic County (New Jersey)

Prediction: 3,500

Actual: 2,592

Accuracy: 74.06%

Closest Formula: 2,141- Four Week population increase average formula was the closest. All other formulas shot in the 3100-3700 range.

Rhode Island (Yea, the whole state)

Prediction:  12,085

Actual: 8,545

Accuracy: 70.71%

Closest Formula: 10,570- Three week average formula was the closest. Four and Two Week averages were too high. Four Week population increase average formula was too low.

***NOTE: I discovered after my prediction that the Rhode Island Data I used was not completely accurate. Googles data for Rhode Island does not update on the weekends. Meaning the following Monday gets all the weekend tests. However, the historical data I used had weekend testing. Therefore my formulas were thrown off with the sudden change in data quality. I will be using the site I received the historical data from for the weekly updates from now on.

Overall weeks Accuracy: 70.14% ……Ouch……

December 9th- Rhode Island

Rhode Island. The state so small, I decided to try to forecast the whole place instead of just a county. Also, it was really difficult to find historical Covid Case data was wasn’t just a chart. For anyone curious of how I get Covid data from past dates, I look for spread sheets with daily Confirmed Case numbers that line up with the data that Google gives me. Until I can find a site with better information than Google, I use their daily case count updates for the weekly increases.

Damn it. I spent an hour analyzing and typing out what was happening in this state and it didn’t save…. Back to the beginning…

Rhode Island

The minute I complied the historical Confirmed Covid Case information into my forecaster, I noticed that the spread rate in Rhode Island is higher than any other place I’ve been looking at. But its the smallest state, so it kind of makes sense. You can’t Social Distance in Rhode Island, you can only go like three feet before you bump into your friends Uncle eating Seafood. When I lived in Rhode Island, I shared a driveway with my neighbor….. and somehow only I owned a shovel…in New England. Man I really got the raw end of that deal….Anyways.

Like everywhere else, Rhode Island saw an exponential upward trend in Covid Cases right around Halloween. For example, take a look at the case increase for the nine weeks prior to Halloween. (Why nine? Because I already typed this thing out once and didn’t hit save. And I still have to make lunch for tomorrow and its now 10PM over here…..I ain’t going further back)

10/19- 2595

10/12- 1512

10/5- 1381

9/28- 971

9/21- 518

9/14- 782

9/7- 579

8/31- 616

8/24 - 640

The weeks prior to 10/5 are all somewhat random and within a cluster. Theres no pattern one way or another. But once we get to 10/5, we start to trend upwards. 10/5 saw 1381 new cases for a total case count of 26,748 which is a 5.44% increase from the previous week. Then 1512 cases, a 5.65% increase, then 2595 cases, a 9.18% increase for a total of 30,855 cases. Thats an increase of 5,488 cases in three weeks where as it previously took eight weeks for the same increase!

Then, Halloween happened…..

10/26- 3031

11/2- 3855

11/9- 6702

11/23- 5928

11/30- 8902

34,117 cases in only 5 weeks.

We are now at the exponential explosion stage of the spreading. If you are paying attention to the numbers, we are in a continuous trend upwards with weekly case increases. The only week that didn’t have more cases than the week before was 11/23. This is due to the holidays, there is a noticeable drop in tests conducted on Thanksgiving compared to the days surrounding it.

FORMULA FORECASTS (FOR 12/7)

4 Week: 1.26 Spread Rate = 11,218 Cases

3 Week: 1.187 Spread Rate = 10,570 Cases

2 Week: 1.19 Spread Rate = 10,621 Cases

14 Day Average: 1089 Avg= 7622 Cases

7 Days Average: 1272 Avg = 8902 Cases Notice how the 7 Day average is higher than the 14 day average. This, again, confirms that there is an upward trend continuing everyday.

Previous Week % Increase: 0.8815% Increase = 8902 Cases

Curious, there are two formulas predicting the same case increase count.

MY PREDICTION

There’s no doubt that the cases will continue to rise at a higher rate. Between the unaccounted Thanksgiving/Black Friday cases (Remember, it can take up to two weeks before you may develop symptoms) and all the Holiday shopping (Malls are packed while restaurants are closed….like that makes sense) I believe the upward trend will continue.

So two formulas predict 8902 cases. That’s EXACTLY how many cases we saw in 11/30. I doubt we will see a stall in the increase.

Then I have three formulas predicting over 10,000 cases. The “4 Week” formula accounts for the spread rate for the past four weeks and averages it out. I think its prediction of 11,218 cases is closer to reality. But I’m still not convinced.

If 12/7 saw the SAME percent increase as 11/30, 4.05%…. Then we are looking at 12,949 cases. Which is frighteningly high. Lets split the difference. 12,084.

Rhode Island Covid Cases for 12/7-12/13: 12,085

I really hope I’m wrong about this one. I feel for all my friends and business owners in Rhode Island.

December 7th- Travis County (Texas) and Passaic County (New Jersey)

This week I will be working on two different counties. Passaic County New Jersey is my home.

TRAVIS COUNTY (TEXAS)

My prediction for the week of 12/6 was 2200-2300. Yea yea, I know. Prediction a range is kind of a cop out. However, the actual count was 2164. So I wasn’t far off. The prediction was based on the reported spike in travel due to the holidays, and following a trend of Holiday Case Spikes. (4th of July, Halloween, etc)

With 2164 new cases, the Travis County Total Case count is now around 40,205. Nearly 8.01% of its reported population.

With that being said, I have started to run multiple forecasts. So far I have: 4 Week Average, 3 Week Average, 2 Week Average, Previous Week Percent Increase (Or decrease), 14 Day Averages and finally….. 7 Day Averages. Not to mention the, no better reason than its interesting, Temperature Tracking. (High Temp = Low Cases. Low Temp = High Cases)

FORMULA FORECASTS (for 12/7)

4 Week: 1.25 Spread Rate = 2712 Cases

3 Week: 1.16 Spread Rate = 2518 Cases

2 Week: 1.11 Spread Rate = 2410 Cases

14 Day Average: 247 Avg= 1729 Cases

7 Days Average: 309 Avg = 2163 Cases

Previous Week % Increase: 0.2517% Increase = 1263.25 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Halloween saw a three week long increase streak. The week of Halloween and prior saw case increases of: 669, 595, 691, 466. Yet the three weeks after were 948 (142%), 1444 (216%) and 1824 (273%).

The week of Thanksgiving was 1609. So following the Halloween increase percentages (Thats 1609 X 216%) we could see an increase of 3473 cases for the week of 12/7.

“But Dave, all the numbers you just threw at us are all over the place!" I know. It’s a lot.

FINAL: I’m gonna go with my gut here and say we see an increase close to 216%. This is based on previous holiday trends and putting into account the exponential spread idea that more people spread to more people (Ground breaking idea. I know)

Travis County Covid Cases for 12/7-12/13: 3400

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

By popular demand (one person asked) I will be tracking Passaic County as well. I really only just started looking at the data. I found historical Covid Case counts starting from March 24th, 2020. I updated the counts using Googles Covid Case Tracker. There is still some work to be done here. However….

Previous week increases were:

12/6- 2927 (Total Case count is 32635. Or 6.5% of total reported population)

11/30- 2927

11/23- 2784

11/16- 2189

11/9- 2325

11/2- 1269

So we can see theres an increase trend. The interesting thing is that the week of Halloween was only 838 cases. The week prior was 468 and the week prior to that (week starting in 10/12 for those of you keeping score at home) was only 371 cases.

So from Halloween we saw an increase per week of:

11/2: 51%

11/9: 83%

11/16: -6%

11/23: 27%

FORMULA FORECASTS (for 12/7)

4 Week: 1.27 Spread Rate = 3730 Cases

3 Week: 1.09 Spread Rate = 3185 Cases

2 Week: 1.16 Spread Rate = 3400 Cases

14 Days Average: 381 Avg = 2667 Cases

7 Days Average: 418 Avg = 2936 Cases

Previous Week % Increase: 0.1099% Increase = 1714.50 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Quick and Dirty….. Without spending too much time on this I predict the 12/7-12/13 case increase to be around 3500. It could even hit 4000. My 4 week Spread Rate is high because of the Holiday increase trend. Based on what we saw after Halloween, I predict that forecast to be close to correct.

November 30th Prediction and Outcome

Below was my prediction for Travis County Covid Case increase for the week of 11/30-12/6. Unfortunately I was out of town that week and could not write up a full run down.

The weeks actual total was 2164. Again, my Guestimates are not far off.

In The Beginning...Or 9 Months Later

In the end of October 2020 I decided to start tracking Covid-19 Cases for myself. This was both to keep myself educated about the pandemic and to shake the dust off my Data Analytic skills. I was mostly curious if I could find trends in cases and if it was possible to forecast case numbers with any type of accuracy. Keep in mind, everything below is currently based on Travis County (Austin Texas). Other states and cities will be coming.

DATA GATHERING

Covid Cases- Google has a pretty good Covid-19 Case count interface. You can look up any Country, State, City or major County and find their New Case and Death counts.

Temperature- In order to see any trends related to Temperature changes, I needed to find a database of Historical Temperatures for specific areas. I stumbled upon https://w2.weather.gov The site has a database of past Average Temperatures per day. You can look up these numbers by month and are exported into a table which I copied into Excel and rearranged for my purposes.

I also needed future Average Temperatures in specific areas. For this I used https://www.timeanddate.com/weather It gave me the forecasted High & Lows for the next week. I used these numbers to average out each days temperatures and attempted to predict case counts based on future temperature changes.

DATA PROCESSING

This is an early view of the Data Processing Excel Sheet. It is in constant layout change processes.

Date | New Cases (Actual) | Total Case Count | Percent of Counties Population | Change in Population Percent from Previous Week | Predicted Covid Cases for the Week | Predicted Total Count | Prediction Error based on Actual | Predicted Total Population Percent with Covid | Previous Weeks Percent Increase | Daily Average Temperatures | Temperature Changes Week to Week | Temperature Change Rating | Actual Week Case Numbers & Percentages

FORECASTING

I am currently using two methods to help forecast Covid-19 Case increases:

1. Based on previous 4 week Case Increase Percentage Averages

2. Based on Temperature Changes

3. Educated Guesses

4 Week Averages- Each week I calculate the percent increase from previous weeks. I then use the percentages from the previous 4 weeks and average them out to give me a very basic idea of what next weeks percentage could be.

The idea behind this approach is that if there is a consistent rise or fall in cases over the past few weeks, then this formula will predict a continuation of this trend. However, things like Holidays, drastic changes in weather, or stricter lockdown procedures will disrupt any trend.

This approach is mostly used as my base projections and are not considered to be accurate.

Temperate Changes- Fairly quickly I was able to identify a consistent pattern between Covid Case numbers and weekly average Temperature changes. If the temperatures went up, Covid Case increases went down (Still increased, but the new case count for the week in question was lower than the previous week) If temperatures went down, then the Covid Case increases went up.

My explanation for this is that higher temperatures invite people to go outside where they might be more distanced and the spread of the virus is less likely to happen. Lower temperatures cause people to stay inside and closer to eachother….yuck!

While this approach can’t predict an actual number, it can help me make informed decisions.

Educated Guesses- This is how make my predictions, by using all the above information, historical data and world events. While the data I have gathered can give me a picture of the past, my formulas attempt to give me an idea of the future. But they aren’t full proof.

For example: The formula predictions for the week after Halloween showed only a 567 case increase. However, having seen a 172% case increase the week after July 4th from the base predictions, and knowing that both Holidays typically involve many people gathering together… I knew the base prediction of 567 was low. So I multiplied it by 172% and formally predicited (On Facebook) that the November 2nd to 8th Case increase would be 975.24.

The actual case count ended up being 948. My educated guess was off by 27, a 2.84% error. Thats pretty good if I do say so myself.

However, my prediction of the week to come was very off base. I predicted 800 cases and it ended up being over 1400. My error was not taking into effect two things:

1. Undiagnosed Halloween cases that were recorded in the following week

2. The exponential affects of a 172% increase over time. If 1 person usually gets Covid and now 1.72 (lets just say 2)….. and now 2 people got it, then they spread the disease to 2 more people.

So now I am working on a way to track exponential growth and exponential predictions.

Lets see how this goes.