Here is a super quick run down of how Weather affects the Virus Spread Rate. The following graphs illustrate the Spread Rate Score ( Spread Rate goes up +1, Spread Rate does down -1) compared to the Temperature Score ( Temp goes up +1, Temp does down -1)
Example: A Spread Rate score of 1.52 is higher than 1.30 so the Spread Score gets a +1. But if the next week sees a Spread Rate of 1.05, thats lower than 1.52 so the Spread Rate gets a -1 and therefor cancels out.
There are many factors to consider:
Heat and/or Sunlight killing the virus
Higher Temps usually mean people go outside more
Lower Temps keep people inside
When it snows or gets really cold in New England, outdoor dining is nearly impossible
Austin climate is different from New England: Doesn’t get too cold, high temps could be in the 100s.
AUSTIN TEXAS
Austin is almost the polar opposite of New England and therefore the inhabitants of it react to weather differently. In the summer you can get temperatures of up to 105. In when temps go up, people stay inside with the Air Conditioning blasting. The outdoor socialization goes down. When temps start to go down, people spend more time gathering outside and preforming activities. While it seems to be reported that the virus doesn’t last long in sunlight, we can’t be sure that the increased socialization doesn’t create scenarios where the virus can spread affectively.
The graph clearly illustrates that, in Austin, the spread rate is directly affected by the temperature. Temps go up, Spread Rate goes down. Temps go down, Spread Rate goes up.
PASSAIC NEW JERSEY
This graph is interesting. At first glance it doesn’t seem to be anything other than jumbled lines, but look again. There are clear indicators of the Temp and Spread Rates interacting. When Temps stayed high the Spread Rate rose, same when the Temps started to fall.
The lower temps on the East Coast bring snow and a complete lack of desire to go outside. So people stay inside, isolated from the outside world.
Temperature is the worlds greatest “Social Distancing” enforcer.
BOSTON MASS
Boston has a mild case of causality. Temps rose but the Spread Rate didn’t continuously climb. That small spike of the Spread Rate to “1” is around the time they started to do outdoor dining in the city. But as temps started to drop it became increasingly harder and unpleasant to dine outside. Add the copious amount of snow that Boston just got and now you have people stuck inside, separated from people outside of their bubble.
RHODE ISALAND
Please Note: The Temp Score comes from the weather data station at TF Green and is what Providence uses for Daily Temp readings. I am not averaging the whole states temperature for this score.
Rhode Island is another mild case. But there is a pretty clear picture here: When Temps go down and people stay inside, cases go down.
As for the high temps in the summer and lack of Spread Rate Climb: Rhode Island was locked down pretty tight. That being said, the Spread Rate in Rhode Island was pretty high compared to other states, but the graph doesn’t show a continual climb.