I skipped 3/29 due to a career change.
3/22 Accuracy Rating: 87.35%
Total Project Accuracy Rating: 85.17%
TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)
Prediction 3/22 : 650
Actual 3/22: 714
Accuracy: 91.04%
Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.01
Actual for 3/29: 586
Spread Rate for 3/29: 0.82
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 0.88 Spread Rate = 514 Cases
3 Week: 0.89 Spread Rate = 521 Cases
2 Week: 0.91 Spread Rate = 536 Cases
14 Day Average: 93 Avg = 650 Cases
7 Days Average: 84 Avg = 586 Cases
MY PREDICTION
All formulas are pointing at a low to mid 500s. Monday (4/5) had a higher than usual count thanks to no case reports on 4/4, Easter Sunday. Given the Holiday and increased Social interactions, I would guess the numbers this week will not dip too much. Potentially even result in a 1.0 Spread Rate, or close to it.
Prediction: 580
PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)
Prediction: 1950
Actual: 1885
Accuracy: 96.67%
Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.07
Actual for 3/29: 2089
Spread Rate for 3/29: 1.11
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.09 Spread Rate = 2274 Cases
3 Week: 1.10 Spread Rate = 2301 Cases
2 Week: 1.09 Spread Rate = 2272 Cases
14 Day Average: 284 Avg = 1987 Cases
7 Days Average: 298 Avg = 2089 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Passaic just keeps climbing. The 2WASR has been very accurate lately. And all formulas are landing in the same area. I’ll go with the formulas on this one.
Prediction: 2275
SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)
Prediction: 1300
Actual: 1757
Accuracy: 73.99%
Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.33
Actual for 3/29: 1774
Spread Rate for 3/29: 1.01
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.08 Spread Rate = 1920 Cases
3 Week: 1.12 Spread Rate = 1990 Cases
2 Week: 1.17 Spread Rate = 2077 Cases
14 Day Average: 252 Avg = 1766 Cases
7 Days Average: 253 Avg = 1774 Cases
MY PREDICTION
Boston got a nice spike in cases two weeks ago. On top of that, the 7 Day Average has been higher than the 14 Day Average for the last three weeks. This tells me we are in a climb. Given the holiday and people getting bolder with the Vaccine roll out, I would guess the cases continue to climb. I’ll go with the 4WASR.
Prediction: 1900
RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)
Prediction: 2400
Actual: 2736
Accuracy: 87.72%
Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.08
Actual for 3/29: 2480
Spread Rate for 3/29: 0.91
FORMULA FORECASTS
4 Week: 1.05 Spread Rate = 2600 Cases
3 Week: 1.15 Spread Rate = 2859 Cases
2 Week: 0.99 Spread Rate = 2461 Cases
14 Day Average: 522 Avg = 3654 Cases
7 Days Average: 496 Avg = 3472 Cases
1WUSP (1 Week Untouched Spread Predictor): 2480
2WUSP: 2261
3WUSP: 2028
MY PREDICTION
Spread Rate Average Formulas are betting on the Spread rising. While the “Untouched” Spread Formulas are betting on the Vaccination numbers to increase, limiting the amount of people that can actually get Covid.
I’m going to side with the Vaccine logic seeing as the vaccinations have been high the past three weeks.
Prediction: 2400