So this past week was not at all what I expected. I am now tracking four areas, though I only posted three predictions, and every area had a lower number than expected. But some of my formulas were pretty close to right!
Travis County (Austin, Texas)
Prediction: 3400
Actual: 2,232
Accuracy: 65.65%
Closest Formula: 2,410 – Two week average formula was the closest. Three and Four Weeks formula shot for higher numbers. Potentially signaling a slowdown in spread?
Passaic County (New Jersey)
Prediction: 3,500
Actual: 2,592
Accuracy: 74.06%
Closest Formula: 2,141- Four Week population increase average formula was the closest. All other formulas shot in the 3100-3700 range.
Rhode Island (Yea, the whole state)
Prediction: 12,085
Actual: 8,545
Accuracy: 70.71%
Closest Formula: 10,570- Three week average formula was the closest. Four and Two Week averages were too high. Four Week population increase average formula was too low.
***NOTE: I discovered after my prediction that the Rhode Island Data I used was not completely accurate. Googles data for Rhode Island does not update on the weekends. Meaning the following Monday gets all the weekend tests. However, the historical data I used had weekend testing. Therefore my formulas were thrown off with the sudden change in data quality. I will be using the site I received the historical data from for the weekly updates from now on.
Overall weeks Accuracy: 70.14% ……Ouch……