Rhode Island. The state so small, I decided to try to forecast the whole place instead of just a county. Also, it was really difficult to find historical Covid Case data was wasn’t just a chart. For anyone curious of how I get Covid data from past dates, I look for spread sheets with daily Confirmed Case numbers that line up with the data that Google gives me. Until I can find a site with better information than Google, I use their daily case count updates for the weekly increases.
Damn it. I spent an hour analyzing and typing out what was happening in this state and it didn’t save…. Back to the beginning…
Rhode Island
The minute I complied the historical Confirmed Covid Case information into my forecaster, I noticed that the spread rate in Rhode Island is higher than any other place I’ve been looking at. But its the smallest state, so it kind of makes sense. You can’t Social Distance in Rhode Island, you can only go like three feet before you bump into your friends Uncle eating Seafood. When I lived in Rhode Island, I shared a driveway with my neighbor….. and somehow only I owned a shovel…in New England. Man I really got the raw end of that deal….Anyways.
Like everywhere else, Rhode Island saw an exponential upward trend in Covid Cases right around Halloween. For example, take a look at the case increase for the nine weeks prior to Halloween. (Why nine? Because I already typed this thing out once and didn’t hit save. And I still have to make lunch for tomorrow and its now 10PM over here…..I ain’t going further back)
10/19- 259510/12- 151210/5- 13819/28- 9719/21- 5189/14- 7829/7- 5798/31- 6168/24 - 640The weeks prior to 10/5 are all somewhat random and within a cluster. Theres no pattern one way or another. But once we get to 10/5, we start to trend upwards. 10/5 saw 1381 new cases for a total case count of 26,748 which is a 5.44% increase from the previous week. Then 1512 cases, a 5.65% increase, then 2595 cases, a 9.18% increase for a total of 30,855 cases. Thats an increase of 5,488 cases in three weeks where as it previously took eight weeks for the same increase!
Then, Halloween happened…..
10/26- 3031
11/2- 3855
11/9- 6702
11/23- 5928
11/30- 8902
34,117 cases in only 5 weeks.
We are now at the exponential explosion stage of the spreading. If you are paying attention to the numbers, we are in a continuous trend upwards with weekly case increases. The only week that didn’t have more cases than the week before was 11/23. This is due to the holidays, there is a noticeable drop in tests conducted on Thanksgiving compared to the days surrounding it.
FORMULA FORECASTS (FOR 12/7)
4 Week: 1.26 Spread Rate = 11,218 Cases
3 Week: 1.187 Spread Rate = 10,570 Cases
2 Week: 1.19 Spread Rate = 10,621 Cases
14 Day Average: 1089 Avg= 7622 Cases
7 Days Average: 1272 Avg = 8902 Cases Notice how the 7 Day average is higher than the 14 day average. This, again, confirms that there is an upward trend continuing everyday.
Previous Week % Increase: 0.8815% Increase = 8902 Cases
Curious, there are two formulas predicting the same case increase count.
MY PREDICTION
There’s no doubt that the cases will continue to rise at a higher rate. Between the unaccounted Thanksgiving/Black Friday cases (Remember, it can take up to two weeks before you may develop symptoms) and all the Holiday shopping (Malls are packed while restaurants are closed….like that makes sense) I believe the upward trend will continue.
So two formulas predict 8902 cases. That’s EXACTLY how many cases we saw in 11/30. I doubt we will see a stall in the increase.
Then I have three formulas predicting over 10,000 cases. The “4 Week” formula accounts for the spread rate for the past four weeks and averages it out. I think its prediction of 11,218 cases is closer to reality. But I’m still not convinced.
If 12/7 saw the SAME percent increase as 11/30, 4.05%…. Then we are looking at 12,949 cases. Which is frighteningly high. Lets split the difference. 12,084.
Rhode Island Covid Cases for 12/7-12/13: 12,085
I really hope I’m wrong about this one. I feel for all my friends and business owners in Rhode Island.