4/12 Update and 4/19 Predictions

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

MY PREDICTION

Austin hit lower than I thought. But I don’t think it will continue to drop. This past week saw a lot more social interaction. The new soccer team drew large crowds at multiple viewing parties across the city. The Night Life on Saturday was very active on 6th street as well. My guess is that the cases will at least stay in the area they are now, if not bump up a little.

Prediction: 800

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

MY PREDICTION

Passaic cases hit higher than I thought but is continuing to climb at a similar pace to the weeks prior. That pace lines up with the 4 & 3WASR forecasts.

Prediction: 2300

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

 

MY PREDICTION

Boston is weird. The case count from last week actually falls in line with what I would have thought the cases would be three weeks ago. But 3/29 was when the spike started and threw my predictions off. But all my forecasts stay around the 1.0 Spread Rate zone.

Prediction: 1500

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

MY PREDICTION

This state was close enough to my prediction but still hit high, again. I’ll forego the “Untouched” formulas as they obviously need some work. Looking at my WASR formulas, it looks like the 3 Week Avg forecast has been the closest the last two weeks.

Prediction: 3200

4/5 Update and 4/12 Predictions

UPDATE: I finally got around to automating my Covid Reports. Now all my Weekly Round Ups and and Forecasting Formulas will be presented in form of a screenshot of my spreadsheet and not actually typed out. Probably saves me an hour each week of shifting between screens.

Last weeks accuracy was: 77.33%

Total Project Accuracy is: 84.09%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

MY PREDICTION

Cases are going to spike as people get braver with going into public spaces and fewer places require masks. I don’t see this turning into a ‘run away’ spike like the holidays were. More vaccinations limit the amount of people that can get the virus and the increase in good weather and higher temps will result in more people outside. As we’ve seen before, going out and higher temps increase the probability of the Spread Rates lowering.

Prediction: 1000

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

MY PREDICTION

Passaic actually reversed on me! Given its steady rise over the last few weeks, I can’t see this number dropping by much. I’ll stick with the Forecasting Formulas.

Prediction: 1700

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

MY PREDICTION

Boston was my closest prediction but its still higher than I expected.  The Spread Rate Forecasters point towards a continued rise.

Prediction: 2300

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

1WUSP (1 Week Untouched Spread Predictor): 1270

2WUSP: 1309

3WUSP: 1419

MY PREDICTION

Rhode Island continuing its rise. WASR Formulas point towards a nearly 1.0 Spread Rate. But WUSP Formulas point towards almost half that. Then again, the WUSP operates under the assumption that Vaccine Rates continue to rise.

Prediction: 2900

3/22 & 3/29 Update and 4/5 Predictions

I skipped 3/29 due to a career change.

3/22 Accuracy Rating: 87.35%

Total Project Accuracy Rating: 85.17%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction 3/22 : 650

Actual 3/22: 714

Accuracy: 91.04%

Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.01

Actual for 3/29: 586

Spread Rate for 3/29: 0.82

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.88 Spread Rate =          514 Cases

3 Week:               0.89 Spread Rate =          521 Cases

2 Week:               0.91 Spread Rate =          536 Cases

14 Day Average:               93 Avg =               650 Cases

7 Days Average:                84 Avg =               586 Cases

MY PREDICTION

All formulas are pointing at a low to mid 500s. Monday (4/5) had a higher than usual count thanks to no case reports on 4/4, Easter Sunday. Given the Holiday and increased Social interactions, I would guess the numbers this week will not dip too much. Potentially even result in a 1.0 Spread Rate, or close to it.

Prediction: 580

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1950

Actual: 1885

Accuracy: 96.67%

Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.07

Actual for 3/29: 2089

Spread Rate for 3/29: 1.11

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.09 Spread Rate =                          2274 Cases

3 Week:               1.10 Spread Rate =                          2301 Cases

2 Week:               1.09 Spread Rate =                          2272 Cases

14 Day Average:               284 Avg =                             1987 Cases

7 Days Average:                298 Avg =                             2089 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Passaic just keeps climbing. The 2WASR has been very accurate lately. And all formulas are landing in the same area. I’ll go with the formulas on this one.

Prediction: 2275

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1300

Actual: 1757

Accuracy: 73.99%

Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.33

Actual for 3/29: 1774

Spread Rate for 3/29: 1.01

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.08 Spread Rate =                          1920 Cases

3 Week:               1.12 Spread Rate =                          1990 Cases

2 Week:               1.17 Spread Rate =                          2077 Cases

14 Day Average:               252 Avg =                             1766 Cases

7 Days Average:                253 Avg =                             1774 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Boston got a nice spike in cases two weeks ago. On top of that, the 7 Day Average has been higher than the 14 Day Average for the last three weeks. This tells me we are in a climb. Given the holiday and people getting bolder with the Vaccine roll out, I would guess the cases continue to climb. I’ll go with the 4WASR.

Prediction: 1900

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 2400

Actual: 2736

Accuracy: 87.72%

Spread Rate for 3/22: 1.08

Actual for 3/29: 2480

Spread Rate for 3/29: 0.91

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.05 Spread Rate =                          2600 Cases

3 Week:               1.15 Spread Rate =                          2859 Cases

2 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =                          2461 Cases

14 Day Average:               522 Avg =                             3654 Cases

7 Days Average:                496 Avg =                             3472 Cases

1WUSP (1 Week Untouched Spread Predictor): 2480

2WUSP: 2261

3WUSP: 2028

MY PREDICTION

Spread Rate Average Formulas are betting on the Spread rising. While the “Untouched” Spread Formulas are betting on the Vaccination numbers to increase, limiting the amount of people that can actually get Covid.

I’m going to side with the Vaccine logic seeing as the vaccinations have been high the past three weeks.

Prediction: 2400

3/15 Update and 3/11 Predictions

Last weeks Prediction Accuracy: 85.92%

Total Project Accuracy: 85.06%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 950

Actual: 708

Accuracy: 74.53%

Spread Rate for 3/15: 0.84

FORMULA FORECASTS

2 Week:               0.84 Spread Rate =                          595 Cases

14 Day Average:               111 Avg =                             778 Cases

7 Days Average:                101 Avg =                             708 Cases

NOTE: Data for 3 & 4 Week Averages are still affected by the winter storm disruption.

MY PREDICTION

Cases are on a decline. I should note that Austin has stricter Mask laws than the rest of the state and that the weather has been really nice the last few weeks. Streets are filled with people going out. As I’ve stated before, the Spread Rate goes down as the Temps go up. Average Temp next week is forecasted to rise, so cases should drop again.

Prediction: 650 (Not quite a 0.84 Spread Rate, but close)

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1650

Actual: 1766

Accuracy: 93.43%

Spread Rate for 3/15: 1.13

Looks like I was right about the cases rising.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.11 Spread Rate =                          1964 Cases

3 Week:               1.14 Spread Rate =                          2013 Cases

2 Week:               1.09 Spread Rate =                          1923 Cases

14 Day Average:               238 Avg =                             1666 Cases

7 Days Average:                252 Avg =                             1766 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The average rise in Spread Rates over the last four weeks is 11.216%.

Using 11.216% we translate that to a spread rate of 111.21. A Spread Rate of 111.21 for last week’s 1766 cases comes out to roughly 1960 cases. My top three forecasts seem to agree with this number.

New Jersey Cases have been rising and the Governor says they may slow down the lifting of restrictions. Code for: Do nothing. Neither lift nor restrict.

I’ll trust the math on this one.

Prediction: 1950

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1200

Actual: 1319

Accuracy: 90.98%

Spread Rate for 3/15: 1.02

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.0  Spread Rate =                            1315 Cases

3 Week:               0.96 Spread Rate =                          1268 Cases

2 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =                          1311 Cases

14 Day Average:               186 Avg =                             1304 Cases

7 Days Average:                188 Avg =                             1319 Cases

MY PREDICTION

This ones tough. Mass is rolling back restrictions, they just entered Stage 4 and are allowing outdoor dining. As I have seen in Austin, outdoor activity has had a positive effect on lowering Covid numbers.

Also, cases have been hovering in the 1300 area for the last 3 weeks. Just to be safe I’ll hit a middle number. Cases can e

Also, cases have been hovering in the 1300 area for the last 3 weeks. Just to be safe I’ll hit a middle number. Cases can either go down with the increased outdoor activity or go up as socialization may rise.

Prediction: 1300

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 2150

Actual: 2537 (1880 when accounting for weekend overflow)

Accuracy: 84.75% (87.44% when accounting for weekend overflow)

Spread Rate for 3/15: 1.47

NOTE: So my previous source of Rhode Island Covid cases (The Atlantic) has stopped reporting cases. I will be moving back to my previous source: Google/NYT. The difference between the sources is that  The Atlantic reported cases on the weekends while Google/NYT only reports Monday through Friday. This causes Monday to get Sat & Sun counts to be added on. This causes a slight disruption in how the data gets analyzed and forecasted.

From this point forward, I will be forecasting based on the numbers I get, but will keep in mind that the weeks numbers are not fully accurate.

FORMULA FORECASTS

Forecasts don’t work right now with the change in data gathering

MY PREDICTION

If the last two weeks had the same process of gathering data then 3/8 would have had 2381 cases. That makes last week’s Spread Rate 1.06. This is a rise from 3/1 2345 cases. Going back even further with the same process, the previous two weeks would have both been around 2400ish.

Rhode Island doesn’t plan on enacting any restrictions. Going back to my previous deep-dive into the Rhode Island Timeline of restrictions, we saw that any reduction and easing of restrictions actually had an effect on lowering cases.

That being said, the cases have been hovering in the 2400-2500 area for a while.

Side note: my “Untouched” Forecaster predicted a higher case count than it did last week. So maybe we are looking at a rise in cases?

Prediction: 2400

3/8 Update and 3/15 Predictions

Last weeks accuracy was: 81.64%

Project Accuracy is now: 84.97%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 1350

Actual: 847

Accuracy: 62.74%

Spread Rate for 3/8: 0.85

Actual numbers hit lower than expected. But I think this is because the weather has been nice and people have been outside more. I can attest to this first hand.

FORMULA FORECASTS

2 Week:               0.70 Spread Rate =          590 Cases

14 Day Average:               132 Avg =             925 Cases

7 Days Average:                121 Avg =             847 Cases

MY PREDICTION

I have no idea. Before the ice storm the cases were 1707, then we got a slight spike as two weeks of reporting rolled into one and 2/22 reported 1827 cases. Then the drop to 1002 cases and another drop to 847 cases.

So I think that Storm, like I predicted, significantly halted Covid spread. But I was wrong when I predicted the reopening measures increasing the case numbers. I predicted it too early. AS we know, there is a lag time with symptoms and a lag time with test results. So if there was any spreading this week we probably wouldn’t start to see it until next week.

Prediction: 950

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1450

Actual: 1565

Accuracy: 92.65%

Spread Rate for 3/8: 1.05

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.01 Spread Rate =                          1583 Cases

3 Week:               1.11 Spread Rate =                          1732 Cases

2 Week:               1.15 Spread Rate =                          1793 Cases

14 Day Average:               218 Avg =                             1528 Cases

7 Days Average:                224 Avg =                             1565 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Passaic cases have been gradually ticking upward, spread is up 400 cases since 2/15. The average increase is around 133 a week. By that math we could see cases next week hit 1698. My guess is the Spread Rate will sit between the 4WASR prediction of 1.01 and the 3WASR of 1.11.

Prediction: 1650

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1150

Actual: 1289

Accuracy: 82.22%

Spread Rate for 3/8: 0.96

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.95 Spread Rate =                          1220 Cases

3 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =                          1273 Cases

2 Week:               0.93 Spread Rate =                          1200 Cases

14 Day Average:               188 Avg =                             1313 Cases

7 Days Average:                184 Avg =                             1289 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Last week my 3WASR and 2WASR were the closest to the actual case count. The week before that my 3WASR was close too. I’ll stay in the area….

Prediction: 1200

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Once again, RI is the problem child of data. There are unreported days (13 & 14) the daily average was 340 a day.

I’ll have to update the numbers later this week to see what happened.

Prediction: 2100

Actual: 1721 (2361 with continued daily average)

Accuracy: 81.95% (88.95% with continued daily average)

Spread Rate for 3/8: 0.73 (1.01 with continued daily average)

FORMULA FORECASTS

Since the week was missing some reports, I’ll skip the weekly forecasting and show you something else I’m working on.

The “Untouched” helper.

RIs population is roughly 1.009Million. So far RI has vaccinated 374,193 people. There has been a total of 132,366 Covid Cases. Which means that out of 1,009,904 people- 506,559 people are potentially unable to contract Covid. (Yes I know, those who had it can get it again, and there’s a new strain and all that stuff. But this isn’t an exact science. There could also be old case + new vaccine overlap. Stick with me here.)

1,009,904 – 506,559 = 503,345 People who are capable of contracting the virus.

So what I have been doing is using a running tally of all those “Touched” by Vaccinations and the virus, subtracting them from Gen Pop and getting an “Untouched” estimate. From there I can calculate, based of prior week’s Virus Spread, what a next week’s Covid Cases could be. Keep in mind this isn’t fully fleshed out and I’m working on a worse case scenario.

1WUSP (1 Week Untouched Spread Predictor): 1533

2WUSP: 1703

3WUSP: 1771

Basically, these are saying that based on the current Covid Case increases and the Vaccination Rates, those numbers are the potential new Covid cases.

MY PREDICTION

Without those last two days of reported cases, its hard to get reliable predictions. I have predictions as low as 1533 and as high as 2418. (When accounting with and without the daily averages to fill in the missing days)

I’ll update the numbers later this week, but based on the trend I’ve been seeing….

Prediction: 2150

3/1 Update and 3/8 Predictions

Last week’s accuracy rating was 82.93.

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 1600

Actual: 1002

Accuracy: 62.63%

Spread Rate for 3/1: 0.55

FORMULA FORECASTS

Week Forecasts are still all off due to the storm.

14 Day Average:               202 Avg =                             1415 Cases

7 Days Average:                143 Avg =                             1002 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Quick:

No Masks in Texas anymore. Austin will probably stick with masks for a little while longer.

Looks like we are starting to see the effect of that ice storm and cold weather. Preventing people from going out entirely stops the spread.

No masks + a two week waiting period from the storm = Small Spike.

Prediction: 1350

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1100

Actual: 1491

Accuracy: 73.78%

Spread Rate for 3/1: 1.24

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.00 Spread Rate =                          1491 Cases

3 Week:               1.00 Spread Rate =                          1490 Cases

2 Week:               1.14 Spread Rate =                          1693 Cases

14 Day Average:               192 Avg =             1346 Cases

7 Days Average:                213 Avg =             1491 Cases

MY PREDICTION

7 Day average is higher than the 14 day average, it’s a sign that the case numbers have been rising over the last week.

This is the highest Spread Rate since Thanksgiving Week.

Looks like the reduction in restrictions + Covid Fatigue is taking its toll on Passaic. People are spreading more.

All formulas point to high 1400s. I’ll go with that.

Prediction: 1450

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1300

Actual: 1337

Accuracy: 97.23%

Spread Rate for 3/1: 0.90

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.89 Spread Rate =                          1194 Cases

3 Week:               0.94 Spread Rate =                          1257 Cases

2 Week:               1.00 Spread Rate =                          1337 Cases

14 Day Average:                202 Avg =                            1414 Cases

7 Days Average:                191 Avg =                             1337 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Looking at the 7 Day average again we see it’s lower than the 14 day. Hopefully this means the cases will continue a decline. Even with the slightly higher cases during 2/22, this past week’s cases are below 2/15s.

Looking at the decline over the last 4 weeks we can see a steady drop. This is why I am going to stick with my 4WASR forecast of 1194.

Prediction: 1150

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 2300

Actual: 2345

Accuracy: 98.08%

Spread Rate for 3/1: 0.90

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.94 Spread Rate =                          2194 Cases

3 Week:               0.97 Spread Rate =                          2265 Cases

2 Week:               1.03 Spread Rate =                          2422 Cases

14 Day Average:               354 Avg =                             2480 Cases

7 Days Average:                335 Avg =                             2345 Cases

MY PREDICTION

All forecasts together get an average of 2341 which would be a 1.00 Spread Rate. But again, looking at the past 4 weeks we are seeing a decline. I’ll stick with the 4WASR forecast again.

Prediction: 2100

2/22 Update and 3/1 Predictions

Not the best week. Last weeks accuracy was 74.47%

Total Project Accuracy now at 85.23%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 2400

Actual: 1827

Accuracy: 76.13%

Spread Rate for 2/22: 6.74 (But it really doesn’t count since last week’s only recorded cases were 271 on Sunday)

Also, 2/28 only had 19 cases reported? Compared to the 7 day average of 261. So there’s a chance that data may change in the future like It has in Rhode Island a few times.

FORMULA FORECASTS

Formulas are basically useless this week, and probably next week, since there was barely any data recorded the week of the 15th thanks to the storm.

MY PREDICTION

Again, the storm really messed up all the data. Austin was on a good decline trend since 1/11.

2/8 only had 5 reporting days and recorded 1707 cases. (Would have been around 2300 cases if the two empty days recorded)

2/15 only had 1 reporting day and recorded 271 cases.

2/22 had 7 reporting days and recorded 1827 cases.

I expected 2/22 to be higher than 2/15 only my prediction was too high. But, if we look at the Rate of Decay from 2/8 (if it was 2300) to 2/22, we may be able to predict a decline of 250ish case next week.

Again, the data is all messed up so this one is more of a stab in the dark until a get a few consecutive weeks together again.

Prediction: 1600

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 950

Actual: 1201

Accuracy: 79.10%

Spread Rate for 2/22: 1.03

2/15 case count was 1167. Cases went up. Curious enough, the town has be holding sporting events last week and allowing parents to attend certain events.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.92 Spread Rate =                          1101 Cases

3 Week:               0.92 Spread Rate =                          1104 Cases

2 Week:               0.88 Spread Rate =                          1054 Cases

14 Day Average:               169 Avg =                             1184 Cases

7 Days Average:                172 Avg =                             1201 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Turns out the snow didn’t deter enough social interaction last week. Spread Rate went up by 0.03%

Didn’t I call this last week? I said the cases in Passaic like to plateau for two weeks then drop again. Did I just find a pattern? Only way to find out!

Last plateau was 2/1 & 2/8 when the cases stayed around 1600 and then dropped 440 cases. Before that the plateau was 1/18 & 1/25 when cases sat around 1800 then dropped 160.

Cases are either going to go up again as restrictions roll back and people socialize more, or they will drop like the last two plateaus.

Prediction: 1100

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1100

Actual: 1490

Accuracy: 73.83%

Spread Rate for 2/22: 1.10

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.86 Spread Rate =                          1288 Cases

3 Week:               0.89 Spread Rate =                          1328 Cases

2 Week:               0.96 Spread Rate =                          1433 Cases

14 Day Average:               203 Avg =                             1421Cases

7 Days Average:                213 Avg =                             1490 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Cases went up by 138. Not exactly what I expected. However I was curious last week if we might hit a Plateau in multiple cities as we hit a “Natural” case number. Meaning the virus was always going to get up to this number, but all the holidays caused a spike these last few months and we are now getting back down to “normal”.

Don’t ask why, but I think cases will go down slightly next week as the cold weather continues.

Prediction: 1300

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 1800

Actual: 2615

Accuracy: 68.83%

Spread Rate for 2/22: 1.17

2/15 was 2237, what are you guys doing over there???

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.90 Spread Rate =                          2349 Cases

3 Week:               0.95 Spread Rate =                          2480 Cases

2 Week:               1.00 Spread Rate =                          2615 Cases

14 Day Average:               347 Avg =                             2426 Cases

7 Days Average:                374 Avg =                             2615 Cases

MY PREDICTION

I’ll be honest, I don’t know. Cases were at 2691 for 2/8, then 2237, then 2615. Based on this, I think the cases will stay in this range. The state is easing restrictions right now, so cases won’t drop but I doubt they will spike again. Unless you guys go crazy out there.

Prediction: 2300

2/15 Update and 2/22 Predictions

Update to 2/8 Accuracy:

There was a problem with the Rhode Island Data that was published last week. See the Rhode Island section below.

Actual accuracy rating for last week was 84.59

2/15 Accuracy:

Due to the Texas situation and Rhode Islands data issue, I only counted the predictions for Passaic and Boston. Accuracy Rating is 89.76%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Due to the winterstorm that basically brought Texas to its knees (far reaching power black outs for five straight days, no drinking water, icy roads for four days, lack of food, no fast food, cats and dogs living together!!!!) there were no case updates from the 13th to the 20th. The first day back to regular reporting was yesterday the 21st.

Actual: 271

MY PREDICTION

Key Factors to look at:

1.       The storm severely disrupted Covid reporting for the whole state.

2.       People were stranded in their homes as the roads were almost impossible to traverse for a couple days.

3.       People were without power for almost the whole week. Those with power opened their homes to people without.

4.       There were “warming shelters” opened throughout the city for the homeless and those who didn’t have power or places to stay.

5.       Once the power was restored, the temps rose again. I personally witnessed the crowds at bars and walking around town over the weekend as people celebrated the end of the freak storm.

So what does this all mean?

First of all, the numbers for the next week, maybe two weeks will be all off. My prediction formulas will basically be useless after missing a whole week of data and I’ll be flying blind. The power outage will result in three, somewhat contradicting, events:

1.       People who should have gotten tested never will, therefore their cases will not be counted

2.       There will be an overflow of older test results from before the storm, but never submitted due to the storm, that will hit this coming week’s numbers. This causes an artificial spike.

3.       People who would have gotten tested during the storm will get tested this week. Basically two weeks’ worth of results will happen in one week.

Second, the increased socialization has the potential to cause a slight spike in the coming week and a half.

Example: People staying at “warming shelters” or with friends who had heat, power and food & then the celebratory lunches, dinners, drinks and hangouts over the weekend.

All of this together points towards a higher case count for the coming week or so.

Prediction: 2400

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1400

Actual: 1167

Accuracy: 83.36%

Spread Rate for 2/15: 0.73

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.90 Spread Rate =                          1049 Cases

3 Week:               0.88 Spread Rate =                          1026 Cases

2 Week:               0.86 Spread Rate =                          1009 Cases

14 Day Average:               198 Avg =                             1387 Cases

7 Days Average:                167 Avg =                             1167 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Currently there is snow on the ground in Passaic, NJ. There is a predicted mixture of snow and rain for tomorrow followed by three clear days and another weekend of potential storms. The weather, like last week, means reduced socialization and testing.

If this continues, Passaic may see its first sub-1000 case week since 10/26. But theres also the possibility that the cases plateau for a week like they did two weeks ago and result in a 1:1 spread.

Prediction: 950

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1300

Actual: 1352

Accuracy: 96.15%

Spread Rate for 2/15: 0.82

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.79 Spread Rate =                          1074 Cases

3 Week:               0.79 Spread Rate =                          1062 Cases

2 Week:               0.79 Spread Rate =                          1063 Cases

14 Day Average:               214 Avg =                             1500 Cases

7 Days Average:                193 Avg =                             1352 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Temps are low in Boston this week, but the weather won’t be too bad overall. Boston is on a good downward trend. Look at the below graph, the cases aren’t dropping as fast anymore, we are approaching what I consider to be a realistic case range. Meaning, if it weren’t for the Holidays and all those social events, the cases would probably have sat in this range naturally.

The end of the Holiday season resulted in an immediate and quick descent in cases. The Spread Rate also dropped. Look at this graph as well.

The Spread Rate seems to sit in the 0.80 area. I’m curious if this is the natural Spread Rate for Boston…. Is it possible to have a Natural Spread Rate???? I’m gonna research this idea more.

Prediction: 1100

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Data Update Notice for 2/8

When I updated the data for 2/15 I realized that the data for 2/8 was different than what I had recorded. There were an additional 1688 cases accounted for that I didn’t have. This isn’t the first time that Rhode Island has done this to me. They seem to have a problem with reporting their numbers in a timely manner. Not to mention they had some weather that week, so it’s possible there was a delay in reporting.

Their initial report for 2/8 was 1003 cases.

The cases for 2/1 was 3186. (this number did not change when the new update came in)

I predicted cases for 2/15, based on the reported 1003, to be 1200. Basically a Spread Rate of 1.20. I did this because I thought the 1003 was artificially low due to weather. Turns out I was right to doubt the number.

So I won’t count this week for my accuracy rating.

But I will update my accuracy rating for 2/8s prediction. I predicted 2400 cases and the updated actual was 2237, so my accuracy rating for 2/8 is actually 93.21%

Actual 2/15: 2237

Spread Rate for 2/15: 0.83 (When compared to the updated numbers for 2/8)

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.81 Spread Rate =                          1811 Cases

3 Week:               0.81 Spread Rate =                          1808 Cases

2 Week:               0.84 Spread Rate =                          1875 Cases

14 Day Average:               352 Avg =                             2464 Cases

7 Days Average:                320 Avg =                             2237 Cases

MY PREDICTION

I’m weary thanks to the data mishap last week. Just looking at all the weekly formulas and the weather forecast, I’d say the 1800 area is probable.

Forecast: 1800

Rhode Island Lockdown Timeline: Breakdown

As the Covid numbers begin to drop across the country, I was curious what a timeline for actual reopening may look like. So I compiled a list of all the Covid Lockdown stages and various restriction orders that came out of Rhode Island. I then matched them up with the graphs I complied from all my data.

First we have the Positive Test Percentage graph. This graph shows the Percentage of Positive tests in all tests given. Please note that I have offset the percentages to the dates, meaning: The percentage at each Restriction update is the percentage of the week leading up to that date. This visualizes what the condition of the state was in that lead to the decision of each restriction update.

Next we have Total Hospitalizations. This is a pretty important graph as it shows the growth in which that amount of people are being admitted to the hospital for Covid. The Blue line is the Total number at that given date and the Red line is the growth number between restriction updates. Each date at the bottom is a date in which a Restriction update was released.

Finally we have the Estimated Current Hospitalizations graph. This one is a less reliable because the Hospitalization numbers are an estimate. I generated the graph by using only the new Hospitalizations for the last two-three weeks. I figured the current widely agreed recovery timeline for the virus is two-to-three weeks. That being said, this doesn’t count for any long term medical attention such as ventilators, so these numbers could be off.

Overall:

Looking at all graphs we see a point in time where Covid seemed to have slowed down and then ramped back up. The graphs seem to point at the end of September / beginning of October, around the announcement of the state reducing gatherings from 25 to 15. “Covid Fatigue” and then the beginning of the Holiday season (starting with the notorious Halloween), set off a chain reaction that spiked cases and hospitalization for months. No further restriction could stop the rise in cases.

But that’s not to say those restrictions didn’t help keep the numbers where they were and not spiking even higher. The restrictions were like lightly using the brakes when you drive downhill: you aren’t going to come to a full stop right away, but you also aren’t going to gain more speed.

Furthermore, the controversial “Pause” was an interesting event. The “Pause” was enacted on November 30th, 2020 and ended on December 21st, 2020 and was designed to slow Covid Spread and to help flatten the curve of hospitalizations. But according to all the charts, it didn’t have a huge effect. Positive Test results went down barely half a percent. And then immediately shot back up past the point they were at before the “Pause”, then dropping continuously. Estimated Current Hospitalizations kept shooting upward, then the “Pause” ended at the first major drop. Which again, the hospitalizations jumped up again immediately and yo-yoed for a few weeks after. Even looking at Total Hospitalizations, the numbers jumped after the “Pause” was enacted and even seem to slow down their climb after it ends.

That being said, the Spread Rates for the weeks during the “Pause” were lower than previous weeks. But a Spread Rate is an indicator of 1:1 spread from each week. So when numbers were already at 8902 the week of 11/30, a Spread Rate of 0.96 the next week still resulted in over 8K new cases.

Conclusion:

As the state reacted to small spikes and began to further restrictions, the cases kept climbing. The holidays were always going to be “Super Spreading” events, there is no argument there. But it appears that the restrictions didn’t help much in preventing them. Maybe just curbing them.

I for one believe Covid is real and a threat to those that are not healthy. That is why I look at the data. The data, I have found, paints a very clear picture of the virus and what is happening in each state and city. There are people who tell me that the sources I use (NYT, The Atlantic, Google) are all Left-Biased and that the sources report higher numbers than are real to help push a Liberal agenda. But if that were true, then the graphs would show me that the Rhode Island (a very Blue state) restrictions actual worked at stopping Covid. Instead it shows me the State struggling to keep up with the virus and human nature. It shows me that no one restriction was overly helpful in stopping anything. The only time that Covid slowed down was once all the social Holidays ended. In short, the virus stopped spreading because people didn’t have a reason to spread it.

2/8 Update and 2/15 Predictions

Last week’s numbers hit way lower than I predicted. Except for Passaic. My drop in accuracy is mostly due to Rhode Island, they reported only 1000 cases which would mean there was only a 31% Spread Rate. I will keep an eye on the information coming out of RI in the next few days and report back.

Last Week’s Accuracy rating: 71.74%

Projects Overall Accuracy: 84.76%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 2600

Actual: 1707

Accuracy: 65.65%

Spread Rate for 2/8: 0.55

There were no entries on the 13th or 14th. Had there been entries that matched the average daily case count then the weeks count would have been 2300.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.78 Spread Rate =          1334 Cases

3 Week:               0.76 Spread Rate =          1294 Cases

2 Week:               0.69 Spread Rate =          1172 Cases

14 Day Average:               401 Avg =             2804 Cases

7 Days Average:                341 Avg =             2390 Cases

MY PREDICTION

All locations have artificially low numbers due to in climate weather. Austin is currently in the middle of a “Ice-Pocolapse.” People are without power all over the state and there is a potential for things to get worse. But next week (2/22) it will get warmer. Due to the current climate and closed businesses, I think the Covid count will be low for the next two weeks:

1.       There will be a significant drop in virus spreading possibilities (Nowhere to shop, closed jobs, no outdoor socialization events)

2.       Covid Testing facilities are closed due to the ice.

That being said, the rise in temps, delayed testing and potential for Covid spreading while people stormed the grocery stores this past weekend could result in Covid cases artificially spiking next week and potentially the end of this week.

Prediction: 1700 (again)

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1380

Actual: 1606

Accuracy: 85.93%

Spread Rate for 2/8: 1.00

Passaic reported cases on all days.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.95 Spread Rate =          1518 Cases

3 Week:               0.96 Spread Rate =          1535 Cases

2 Week:               0.96 Spread Rate =          1535 Cases

14 Day Average:               229 Avg =             1605 Cases

7 Days Average:                229 Avg =             1606 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Passaic County hit almost exactly where it was last week. The highest case reporting was on Wednesday, potentially test results coming back three days later from Monday. Monday would be spill over from the previous week. The rest of the week’s numbers fall in line with an area that’s slowly declining.

The area is supposed to receive more ice and snow this week.

Prediction: 1400

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 1760

Actual: 1647

Accuracy: 93.58%

Spread Rate for 2/8: 0.75

Boston reported cases on all days.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.79 Spread Rate =                          1303 Cases

3 Week:               0.79 Spread Rate =                          1294 Cases

2 Week:               0.77 Spread Rate =                          1264 Cases

14 Day Average:               274 Avg =                             1919 Cases

7 Days Average:                235 Avg =                             1647Cases

All weekly formulas are hitting in the same area because the last four weeks have seen a steady decline and no dramatic switches in any particular direction.

MY PREDICTION

As the temperature gets colder and the weather produces more snow and ice, the drop in Boston should continue. Currently it is supposed to snow on Thursday and Friday, which means reduced social interactions.

Prediction: 1300

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 2400

Actual: 1003

Accuracy: 41.79%

Spread Rate for 2/8: 0.31

Rhode Island did not report any cases on the 13th or 14th. Had they reported the daily average on those two days, the week count would have been around 1300.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.62 Spread Rate =                          623 Cases

3 Week:               0.63 Spread Rate =                          628 Cases

2 Week:               0.53 Spread Rate =                          533 Cases

14 Day Average:               299 Avg =                             2095 Cases

7 Days Average:                143 Avg =                             1003 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The cases this week dropped drastically. Mostly due to bad weather and cold temps. Would like to say that I think this big of a drop (69%) is rare. I will be looking into this more

As the temperature gets colder and the weather produces more snow and ice, the drop in Rhode Island should continue. Currently it is supposed to snow on Thursday and Friday, which means reduced social interactions.

But I think the numbers this week are artificial, theres only 1000 cases due to the weather. And while the weather will continue, I think we will start to realize actual case numbers this week.

Prediction: 1200

Temperatures and Covid Spread Rates

Here is a super quick run down of how Weather affects the Virus Spread Rate. The following graphs illustrate the Spread Rate Score ( Spread Rate goes up +1, Spread Rate does down -1) compared to the Temperature Score ( Temp goes up +1, Temp does down -1)

Example: A Spread Rate score of 1.52 is higher than 1.30 so the Spread Score gets a +1. But if the next week sees a Spread Rate of 1.05, thats lower than 1.52 so the Spread Rate gets a -1 and therefor cancels out.

There are many factors to consider:

Heat and/or Sunlight killing the virus

Higher Temps usually mean people go outside more

Lower Temps keep people inside

When it snows or gets really cold in New England, outdoor dining is nearly impossible

Austin climate is different from New England: Doesn’t get too cold, high temps could be in the 100s.

AUSTIN TEXAS

Austin is almost the polar opposite of New England and therefore the inhabitants of it react to weather differently. In the summer you can get temperatures of up to 105. In when temps go up, people stay inside with the Air Conditioning blasting. The outdoor socialization goes down. When temps start to go down, people spend more time gathering outside and preforming activities. While it seems to be reported that the virus doesn’t last long in sunlight, we can’t be sure that the increased socialization doesn’t create scenarios where the virus can spread affectively.

The graph clearly illustrates that, in Austin, the spread rate is directly affected by the temperature. Temps go up, Spread Rate goes down. Temps go down, Spread Rate goes up.

PASSAIC NEW JERSEY

This graph is interesting. At first glance it doesn’t seem to be anything other than jumbled lines, but look again. There are clear indicators of the Temp and Spread Rates interacting. When Temps stayed high the Spread Rate rose, same when the Temps started to fall.

The lower temps on the East Coast bring snow and a complete lack of desire to go outside. So people stay inside, isolated from the outside world.

Temperature is the worlds greatest “Social Distancing” enforcer.

BOSTON MASS

Boston has a mild case of causality. Temps rose but the Spread Rate didn’t continuously climb. That small spike of the Spread Rate to “1” is around the time they started to do outdoor dining in the city. But as temps started to drop it became increasingly harder and unpleasant to dine outside. Add the copious amount of snow that Boston just got and now you have people stuck inside, separated from people outside of their bubble.

RHODE ISALAND

Please Note: The Temp Score comes from the weather data station at TF Green and is what Providence uses for Daily Temp readings. I am not averaging the whole states temperature for this score.

Rhode Island is another mild case. But there is a pretty clear picture here: When Temps go down and people stay inside, cases go down.

As for the high temps in the summer and lack of Spread Rate Climb: Rhode Island was locked down pretty tight. That being said, the Spread Rate in Rhode Island was pretty high compared to other states, but the graph doesn’t show a continual climb.

2/1 Update and 2/8 Predictions

Two weeks in a row, let’s go!

I had an accuracy rating of 91.07% last week. This plus last weeks 92.52% brings my Total Project Accuracy rating up to 86.16%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 3375

Actual: 3100

Accuracy: 91.85%

Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.82

Based on this week’s performance, Austin won’t hit 100% population spread until 7/8/2028

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.96 Spread Rate =          2968 Cases

3 Week:               0.86 Spread Rate =          2661 Cases

2 Week:               0.86 Spread Rate =          2672 Cases

14 Day Average:               491 Avg =             3434 Cases

7 Days Average:                443 Avg =             3100 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Cases are headed down. Since Austin’s high of 4912 cases during the week of 1/11, cases are down 37%. That’s a big drop in only three weeks. I believe this trend will continue, but its going to get colder in Austin this coming week. As I’ve explained before, Temps go down and Cases go up. So this might prevent the cases from dropping to its next low number compared to nicer temps.

Looking at the Spread Rates since December, we can see a trend downward. The Trend line in this graph uses the averages of the current and previous week to illustrate a trend. The trend ends on 0.71 Spread Rate, which is roughly 2201 cases.

The last three weeks have seen new cases drop by, 14.89%, 9.89% and 18.26%. The average of those are 14.33%. If we see a 14.33% drop in cases this week, from last weeks 3100, then that will be 434 less cases or 2666 cases next week. Which both my 3WASR and 2WASR forecasts point to.

Prediction: 2600

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1350

Actual: 1603

Accuracy: 84.22%

Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.91

Passaic was my worst performance last week. I guess the snow wasn’t enough to slow things down during the week, but it may affect future weeks. February 3rd only had 91 reported cases and the two days flanking it were lower numbers than the rest of the week too.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.80 Spread Rate =          1280 Cases

3 Week:               0.93 Spread Rate =          1485 Cases

2 Week:               0.93 Spread Rate =          1496 Cases

14 Day Average:               240 Avg =             1683 Cases

7 Days Average:                               229 Avg =             1603 Cases

MY PREDICTION

I’m looking at weather and the Spread Rates trending decline, also last week the cases dropped by 160. I’m inclined to say that this weeks cases will fall between the 4WASR and the 3WASR forecasts.

The average of those two comes out to roughly 1380. I’m hesitant but….i’m not saving lives here so whatevah.

Prediction: 1380

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 2100

Actual: 2191

Accuracy: 95.85%

Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.78

Boston was my best score last week! It also had the second lowest Spread Rate.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.80 Spread Rate =          1761 Cases

3 Week:               0.80 Spread Rate =          1761 Cases

2 Week:               0.80 Spread Rate =          1759 Cases

14 Day Average:               356 Avg =             2495 Cases

7 Days Average:                313 Avg =             2191 Cases

Why are all the Weekly Spread Rate Forecasts so close to each other? The last four weeks have had very similar Spread Rates: 0.80, 0.81, 0.82, 0.78. This causes all the forecasts to be grouped together, since all the numbers they are pulling are similar.

MY PREDICTION

Snow, Snow come and stay.  Put that Virus Spread Rate away…..

Last week’s Spread Rate was lower than the former three weeks. If this weeks Spread Rate stays at 0.78 then the new cases for this week would be 1716. I’d be willing to bet the case count lands in that area. But I’ll stick with my 4WASR.

Prediction: 1760

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 3450

Actual: 3186

Accuracy: 92.35%

Spread Rate for 2/1: 0.75

Rhode Island had the lowest Spread Rate last week!

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.84 Spread Rate =          2688 Cases

3 Week:               0.72 Spread Rate =          2304 Cases

2 Week:               0.78 Spread Rate =          2489 Cases

14 Day Average:               677 Avg =             4742 Cases

7 Days Average:                               608 Avg =             4254 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The curfew for certain venues was lifted last week, followed immediately by snow fall. So if the curfew has an effect on the Spread Rate, we won’t see it as it gets counter acted. It snowed again yesterday in the area, so I believe the weather will continue to affect the Spread.

Cases have dropped by a 1000 for the last two weeks. So when I see a Forecast of 2304, I’m not surprised. I guess the question is…do we think this drop will continue at its current rate? It’s obvious that the weather is helping.

Also, looking at the last time Rhode Island was over 2500 cases in a week (4/20/20) the Spread Rate declined over 3 weeks and stayed in the 0.75-0.77 range for five weeks before summer plans started to push the numbers higher. Last week was the 3rd week of decline, so if April is any determination then Rhode Islands Spread Rate may rest in the 0.75 area for a little while. But in April the cases went up as temperatures went up, now temperatures are going down so the Spread Rate may not rest.

Fingers Crossed:

Prediction: 2400

1/25 Updates and 2/1 Predictions

I made up for that last time when I missed the mark. I had 92.52% accuracy last week, across all four locations. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaa Booooooooooyyyyyyyy

I’m not bragging, you’re bragging….I’m just a Cow. Moo.

Moooving right along….

My total accuracy rating for this project is now: 85.49% Which is the highest it’s been since I started tracking four locations.

I’m no weather man, but I predict weather will play a theme in the coming weeks.

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 3600

Actual: 3768

Accuracy: 95.54%

Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.90

Looks like the virus is continuing its decline, but we can’t deny that the bad weather last week was a major player. No holidays to gather for, almost impossible to eat outside with the cold and then the Snow keeping people inside. The spread rate might have been 1.0 if not for those factors.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.03 Spread Rate =          3877 Cases

3 Week:               1.00 Spread Rate =          3777 Cases

2 Week:               0.88 Spread Rate =          3302 Cases

14 Day Average:               567 Avg =             3974 Cases

7 Days Average:                538 Avg =             3768 Cases

All formulas agree the cases will be below 4K. The 3WASR formula is capturing 1/11s high 1.25 spread rate while the 2WASR is capturing the two lows of 1/18 & 1/25 (0.85 and 0.90).

The 14 Day average is on the high side because it picked up the tail end of the 1/11 spike that bled into 1/18s week = four days of cases hitting 700 and higher.

MY PREDICTION

As I found in Austin, Texas, the temperature plays a significant role in the virus spread rate from week to week.  Temps go down, Spread Rate goes up and visa-versa. See below:

Spread Rate Score goes up or down by 1 based on if the Spread Rate was higher or lower than the week before.

Same goes for the Temp Score, if the Average temp was higher, the score goes up by 1 and visa-versa.

The nice weather (Average Temp is supposed to go up this week) and slowing Spread Rate should help keep cases down this week.

Just going by my gut instinct, I think the cases will land somewhere between the 3WASR and 2WASR forecasts. Actually, last week the cases dropped by 413….so maybe closer to the 2WASR.

Prediction: 3375

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 1600

Actual: 1763

Accuracy: 90.75%

Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.96

Passaic had the highest spread rate last week. That’s a good sign for turning this thing around.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.42 Spread Rate =          2509 Cases

3 Week:               0.76 Spread Rate =          1343 Cases

2 Week:               0.94 Spread Rate =          1649 Cases

14 Day Average:               258 Avg =             1929 Cases

7 Days Average:                252 Avg =             1763 Cases

Most formulas predict lower than 2K cases. The 4WASR should be thrown out since its capturing 1/4s 3.41 spread rate. Which was the highest spread rate since March 30ths 3.47

MY PREDICTION

As I found in Austin, Texas, the temperature plays a significant role in the virus spread rate from week to week, see the graph above:

North Jersey just got absolutely dumped on with snow. This is going to stop people from going out, socializing, getting tested and probably slows down tests getting reported. So the numbers will be affected by this. Keep in mind, some of this week’s numbers will be pre-storm numbers being reported later. This storm will probably also effect next weeks (2/8) numbers, just not sure in which direction.

Due to the storm I think the 3WASR is probably close to the real number, maybe even lower???

Prediction: 1350

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 3000

Actual: 2798

Accuracy: 93.27%

Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.82

Boston had the second lowest Spread Rate last week.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.95 Spread Rate =          2657 Cases

3 Week:               0.811 Spread Rate =        2268 Cases

2 Week:               0.814 Spread Rate =        2278 Cases

14 Day Average:               443 Avg =             3100 Cases

7 Days Average:                400 Avg =             2798 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Boston is different from Austin, Boston gets cold and stays cold for a while, Boston also gets more snow than Austin. Boston also knows how to drive in snow, which no one in Austin knows how to do and causes massive delays. Regardless…. We haven’t really seen the virus go up against a real New England storm, the kind where people don’t leave the house.

The virus seems to be slowing down from its holiday surge and the storms will add to that. Less socializing, less leaving the house and…..less testing.

Side note, over the last three weeks the cases have dropped by 1033, 819, 603 respectively. Following that trend and factoring in the snow, I’d imagine that number could be 700-800 next week.

Prediction: 2100

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 4700

Actual: 4254

Accuracy: 90.51%

Spread Rate for 1/25: 0.81

Congrats Rhode Island, you had the lowest Spread Rate last week!

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.91 Spread Rate =          3858 Cases

3 Week:               0.88 Spread Rate =          3724 Cases

2 Week:               0.71 Spread Rate =          3022 Cases

14 Day Average:               677 Avg =             4742 Cases

7 Days Average:                608 Avg =             4254 Cases

14 Day average is so high because 1/18s week had 4 days above 800 cases, 3 of which were over 900. Compared to last week which didn’t have a single day over 745.

Fun Note: Full Population Infection is projected for February 1st. 2025. Soooooo never.

MY PREDICTION

Rhode Island is going to be our most interesting study going forward. The state just lifted its curfew on restaurants and had many people celebrating by going out and socializing. No complaints here, however I am curious how that affects the spread rate. My initial reaction is to say the removal of the curfew caused celebration which exposes people to the risk of contracting Covid. Yet, the snow storm and cold weather may prevent people from actually going out. And it gets real cold in Rhode Island, I know, I shoveled there a few times.

So the lifted curfew and storm should clash. This makes me think the cases for next week will fall between the 3WASR and the 2WASR.

Prediction: 3400-3500 cases……Call it 3450

Florida v. California: Part 2

The following data was accumulated from The Covid19 Tracking Project by The Atlantic.

I realized I forgot a very important aspect of my comparison: Percent of State Population with Covid.

As the graphs in my previous post will show you, the virus is mostly the same in both states, the spread rates are similar, the Death % was similar, though Cali had a spike, overall the virus acts the same from coast to coast. And while that in itself is interesting, it didn’t tell me how the virus actually affected the states population.

The following graph is based on the percentage of the states population with Covid at any given date from March 6th, 2020 to January 17 2021.

As you’ll see, the states start off similar until June when Florida jumps by a full percent higher than California. As you may remember, Florida started to re-open around May 18th.

The thing I find very interesting is that the two lines converge again in January, meaning the states hit the same population percentage. After that, Florida falls behind as California continues to climb.

I am purely a sideline speculator when it comes to this, I’m doing it for the data. As you may know from a previous post, I had Covid during Christmas. There was a formal positive test and everything, I had all the symptoms and even had a symptom that only 30% of people report; eye socket soreness.

But it does interest me to see that a closed state (Cali) and an open state (Florida) have intersected instead of separating like you think they would.

So I ask you Californians, what on earth are you doing?

1/18 Update and 1/25 Predictions

So I shot a little too high in my predictions last week. Based on all the historical data for holiday spikes and then the double holiday at the end of the year, I thought there would be a three week case spike. But as you will see below, last week saw a case drop in all locations. Potentially a sign of Covid spread decline due to the lack of social gathering holidays. The next ‘big’ holiday is Valentine’s Day, and if you do that with more than one other person….you might be from Utah.

Ooooooh, I should track Utah case spikes after Valentine’s day…..

Overall weeks Accuracy: 79.21%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 5840

Actual: 4181

Accuracy: 71.59%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.85

Austin dropped by 731 cases last week, roughly 15% from last week. If this continues then that would make the week of 1/11 the highest one week increase ever for Austin. Hopefully we continue to see a steady decline in case increases, anything with a spread rate lower than 1.00 is good.

If next week has a spread rate of 0.85 again then we would have 3559 cases. The spread rate would have to stay at 0.85 for 51 weeks before Austin saw 0 cases a week….Shit, that number hurts.

Side note, the last time we saw less than 1000 cases a week was the week of 11/2 with 948 cases. Hopefully we can get back down to those numbers soon.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.10 Spread Rate =          4619 Cases

3 Week:               1.07 Spread Rate =          4480 Cases

2 Week:               1.05 Spread Rate =          4403 Cases

14 Day Average:               649 Avg =             4546 Cases

7 Days Average:                597 Avg =             4181 Cases

Note: The 7 Days Average dropped by 104 in 7 days.

MY PREDICTION

All of those Weekly forecasts are above 1.00, I think those numbers are a little high. As we know, the social season is over, now comes the depressive “There’s Nothing to Celebrate, Maybe I’ll Take Up Drinking Alone At Home” season.

If the 7 Day Average Drops by 104 again, the case count for next week would be 3453.

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.85, the case count for next week would be 3554.

I might be overly hopeful, but I’d like to think these numbers are close to what might actually happen.

Prediction: 3600

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 2000

Actual: 1842

Accuracy: 92.10%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.91

Passaic was my closest forecast, but they still hit lower than expected. Last week was huge drop off from the counties highest of 4866 on January 4th. Last week was 2.64 times lower, but still only 174 cases lower than the week of 1/18.

Passaic county would have to stay at a Spread Rate of 0.91 for 79 weeks before there were 0 new cases.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.39 Spread Rate =          2564 Cases

3 Week:               1.58 Spread Rate =          2908 Cases

2 Week:               0.66 Spread Rate =          1223 Cases

14 Day Average:               276 Avg =             1929 Cases

7 Days Average:                                263 Avg =             1842 Cases

These numbers are all over the place.

Note: The 7 Day Average dropped by 25 in 7 days.

MY PREDICTION

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.91, next week cases will be 1683.

If the 7 Day Average drops by 25 again, next week cases will be 1667.

But Passaic hasn’t been consistently below a Spread Rate of 1.00 since June and that was only for 5 weeks. So it’s hard to tell what’s going to happen. I think I’ll stick with my gut and say that the cases will continue to go down. I’ll use my Day Average to help guide me.

Prediction: 1600

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 4600

Actual: 3401

Accuracy: 73.93%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.81

Bahston….looks like you finally stopped sending people out to get your Dunkies and decided to brew your own coffee at home. Probably for the best. Dunkin, it’s nothing personal, you know I love you and I miss you.

This is the lowest case increase in 7 weeks. The lowest prior was 1966 during the week of Thanksgiving, the following week had a spike reaching 3810.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.02 Spread Rate =          3484 Cases

3 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =          3373 Cases

2 Week:               0.80 Spread Rate =          2737 Cases

14 Day Average:               544 Avg =             3811 Cases

7 Days Average:                486 Avg =             3401 Cases

Note: The 7 Day Average dropped 117 from last week.

MY PREDICTION

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.81, next week’s cases will be 2741.

If the 7 Day Average drops by 117 again, next week’s cases will be 2582.

I suspect the Spread Rate will be below 1.00, however, given that Bostons Spread Rate has consistently been above 1.00 for months, I don’t think the Spread Rate will stay at 0.81. So I’ll split the difference.

The 3WASR (0.99) and 2WASR (0.81) average out to 3055 cases.

Prediction: 3000

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 6600

Actual: 5229

Accuracy: 79.23%

Spread Rate for 1/18: 0.61

Data Update Notice: When I looked at the Rhode Island numbers, I noticed that there was reported cases on 1/16 & 1/17. When I published the update last Monday, these cases were not in the spread sheet I generate my formulas from. However, when I look at the spread sheet I used for the California vs Florida breakdown, those dates have numbers.  My guess is there was a late update sometime last week. My experience with this project is that Rhode Island has a hard time actually submitting their data on time. If I’m being completely honest, this lost data probably made my accuracy better….

The case count for 1/11 was actually 8610. Making this past week a 3381 case drop.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.05 Spread Rate =          5497 Cases

3 Week:               0.94 Spread Rate =          4905 Cases

2 Week:               0.91 Spread Rate =          4738 Cases

14 Day Average:               989 Avg =             6919 Cases

7 Days Average:                747 Avg =             5229 Cases

Note: The 7 Day Average dropped by 264.

MY PREDICTION

If the Spread Rate stays at 0.61 (unlikely) then next week’s cases would be 3176. (Last time the cases were that low was 10/26, and that was at the beginning of a spike from Halloween that never really ended for the state.)

If the7 Day Average drops by 264, next week’s cases would be 1848. Even more unlikely.

I could be hitting too high here, but I think the spread rate will be closer to 0.90. I say this because 0.61 was a huge drop and is fueled by the previous week being the state’s second highest weekly increase ever. I think the spread rate will even out before steadily dropping again.

Prediction: 4700

Florida vs. California: Open vs. Closed

I was asked by a friend in California to compare his closed state to an open state, say…Florida. He wanted to know how to two states compared, I was curious as well.

Below is some comparison work I did. All the Data I used comes from ‘The Covid Tracking Project by The Atlantic’ I use this Data because it has been on par with the data I have used in my other analytics. My friend did point out to me that the data from The Atlantic does not 100% line up with John Hopkins University. I will probably look into that in the future and do a comparison of data post.

Keep in mind there is still many variables at play here. There are tons of numbers I can look at and formulas I can play with. There are also a lot of formulas I need to research. But….Its lunch time on a Saturday and I’m ready to Send It on my bike.

This will be a topic I will be coming back to in the future.

Screenshots of my work are below. But you can also download the PDF HERE

1/11 Update and 1/18 Predictions: I'm on a roll baybayyyy!

Last weeks total Prediction Accuracy was 91.33%

My total accuracy rating for this little project is now 85.29%.... Almost 1% higher than last week.

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Prediction: 5000

Actual: 4912

Accuracy: 98.24%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 1.25

The county didn’t report any new cases on the 12th. However, there was a spike in case counts for the next two days, I assume that spike was actually all the cases that came in on the 12th and went unreported. Or maybe the county didn’t do testing on that day and there was an influx of tests being done on the 13th and 14th. Either way doesn’t matter, my prediction was right….and I’m oh so humble about it.

Something to be noted is that last week’s case increase was the highest case increase in a single week since 4th of July week.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.13 Spread Rate =          5561 Cases

3 Week:               1.19 Spread Rate =          5842 Cases

2 Week:               1.18 Spread Rate =          5804 Cases

14 Day Average:               630.43   Avg =     4413 Cases

7 Days Average:                                702         Avg =     4912 Cases

Last week the closest prediction was the 4WASR. It predicted 4541 cases compared to the actual 4912, a 7.55% error.

It should also be noted that the 7 & 14 Day averages have been rising steadily for the last couple weeks. They are both at their all-time highs.

MY PREDICTION

Last week’s Spread Rate was 1.25. As discussed in last week’s post, Austin saw a 3 week spike after Halloween and Thanksgiving. And I suspect that the double holiday we just celebrated could cause a slightly elongated spike this time around, say 4 weeks. 1/18 is the third week.

If this week sees another 1.25 Spread rate we would get: 6164 cases

That number is actually pretty close to our 3 & 2 WASR formulas. So maybe I will stick with my 3WASR prediction.

Prediction: 5840

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Prediction: 2000

Actual: 2016

Accuracy: 99.21%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 0.41

Last week’s case count was 4886 which was a huge spike from previous weeks. That Monday (1/4) had 2973 cases alone, so I knew it had something to do with a reporting and testing result delays. The week prior was only 1428 cases, but I knew we were going to be looking at a natural spike, which is why I predicted 2000.

Backing up my claim that those 2973 cases are more of a result/data dump on a single day…. Our lowest spread rate in the last few months was 0.81. If those 2973 cases were real cases then last week should have seen far more than 2016 new cases and a spread rate of 0.41.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.37 Spread Rate =          2753 Cases

3 Week:               1.55 Spread Rate =          3128 Cases

2 Week:               1.91 Spread Rate =          3852 Cases

14 Day Average:               492         Avg =     3441 Cases

7 Days Average:                                288         Avg =     2016 Cases

Just like last week, my forecasting formulas are going to be way off thanks to the 4886 cases from Jan 4th.

MY PREDICTION

As I said before, the formulas are skewed from that test result spike.

Looking at Halloween and Thanksgiving, Passaic County only had a spike lasting 2 weeks both times. So I think Christmas/New Years will see a 3 week spike. Meaning we are approaching our last week of this proposed spike.

Purely looking at the last two weeks, and factoring out those 2973 cases in a single day, we can see the weekly numbers landing around 2000. My guess would be that next week will land around that number again. Maybe even climb shortly.

Prediction: 2000….again

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Prediction: 6000

Actual: 4220

Accuracy: 70.33%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 0.80

Boston was my worst prediction last week. I predicted a spike and we actually got a drop. So maybe we will see the case counts continue to drop or even level out. Last week saw 1033 less cases than the previous week, this is promising!

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.04 Spread Rate =          4371 Cases

3 Week:               1.10 Spread Rate =          4631 Cases

2 Week:               1.08 Spread Rate =          4577 Cases

14 Day Average:               677         Avg =     4737 Cases

7 Days Average:                                603         Avg =     4220 Cases

All formulas seem to point at a slight tick upward, yet stay near last week’s numbers.

MY PREDICTION

So Boston pulled a fast one and made a nice recovery. However, historical Holiday spikes tell me that holidays typically effect 3 weeks. So I’m actually going to side with my formulas here and say there will be a slight tick upward next week. But overall, my guess is that these numbers will start to decline over the next few months.

Prediction: 4600

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Prediction: 7000

Actual: 6829

Accuracy: 97.56%

Spread Rate for 1/11: 0.96

I was 2.44% off from predicting an entire states Covid Case increase….

Also, last week Rhode Island officially surpassed 100,000 cases. That’s 1/10th of its population.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.04 Spread Rate =          7108 Cases

3 Week:               1.12 Spread Rate =          7622 Cases

2 Week:               0.98 Spread Rate =          6683 Cases

14 Day Average:               998 Avg =             6987 Cases

7 Days Average:                                976 Avg =             6829 Cases

Only the 4WASR formula has been notably close the last two weeks. And even that doesn’t mean much.

MY PREDICTION

Holiday spikes in Rhode Island last almost three weeks. I predict this one to last three weeks which means we are entering our last week.

That being said, last week saw 316 less cases than the week before, so while the spike results in high weekly case counts, we may actually start to see a decline/ leveling off of that spike.

Rhode Island has been a notoriously bad state with the spread rate being higher than the other 3 places I’ve been looking at. So while history tells me we should be seeing a decline coming, I almost feel like the numbers won’t dip too much.

Prediction: 6600

1/4 Update and 1/11 Predictions

Current total accuracy rating: 84.49%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Last week’s numbers didn’t hit the mark but the county also failed to report any cases on Jan 10th. Then Jan 11th cases were a bit higher than usual, so I think they just didn’t get the numbers in on time on the 10th???

My prediction was for 4900 cases, the actual was 3914. 79.87% accuracy.

Just for giggle let’s pretend the 10th got the daily average number of cases …. The daily average (1/4-1/9)  was 652. So 3914 + 652 = 4566 which is 93.18% accuracy.

Not bad! Makes me wonder what happened on the 10th?

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:    1.16 Spread Rate =      4541 Cases

3 Week:   1.09 Spread Rate =       4271 Cases

2 Week:  1.16 Spread Rate =        4526 Cases

14 Day Average:  531.86 Avg =    3723 Cases

7 Days Average:   559 Avg =         3914 Cases

The 2WASR forecast has actually been pretty close the last two weeks. It forecasted 3413 for 12/28, the actual was 3532. Then last week it forecasted 3825.

The 4WASR was also pretty good. It forecasted 3448 for 12/28 and 4030 for last week.

MY PREDICTION

12/28 had a 1.20 Spread rate.

1/4/21 had a 1.11 Spread Rate. If the daily average was reported on the 10th, the spread rate would be 1.29.

So while this past weeks numbers were low, I think it actually has to do with a reporting error. The case count for the 11th is 955, higher than the average, which tells me that the non-reported cases from last week will carry over into this week.

Seeing as the 4WASR and the 2WASR have been pretty good these last two weeks, I am going to look at their forecasts. But, I have to add on what I assume are last weeks missing numbers. So while the 4WASR forecast is for 4541, I’m going to go for 5000.

Prediction: 5000

Spread Rate

Weekly: Daily Case Averages

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

These numbers were double what I expected. I forecasted 2500 cases, but the actual was 4566.

However, the 4th saw 2973 new cases reported. But the daily average for the rest of the week (5th – 10th) was only 316. Replacing the super high numbers on the 4th and replacing them with the daily average gets me 2208 cases and an accuracy of 88.34%.

But that’s not the real world, so what happened?

Well I think this is the influx of cases we get from the Holidays. From personal experience I know that it takes a few days to get results from the test. I also know that human nature says, “Let’s go out and parrrrrtaaaaaay.” So I think two things happened.

First, there is a delay in results from people getting tested from the 1st to the 3rd, those results come in on the 4th and inflate that week’s numbers. Second, I’d be willing to bet there was an influx of testing and positive tests due to all the holiday shenanigans. People party with someone at Christmas or New Year’s, a few days later they find out their friend at the party was exposed and now they need to get tested. So that huge number on Monday can be people who were exposed at Christmas but didn’t know yet.

So what’s my accuracy? Well it could be 51.37% (2500/4866) or it could be 88.34% (2208/2500)

I’ll take the ‘L’ on this one, but to be fair….I was also kind of right.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.47 Spread Rate =          7137 Cases

3 Week:               1.68 Spread Rate =          8189 Cases

2 Week:               2.12 Spread Rate =          10318 Cases

14 Day Average:               450 Avg =             3147 Cases

7 Days Average:                                695 Avg =             4866 Cases

These numbers are all super off thanks to that crazy spike on the 4th.

MY PREDICTION

Last week’s Spread Rate was 3.41. Which we can probably label as a freak event thanks to the Holidays and maybe a backlog of test results?

For 4 weeks prior to Christmas/New Years, the Spread Rate in Passaic County has been hovering around 0.84. So each week there was a steady decline in the case increase. Next week we may see a crazy low spread rate as the case increase peaks with the Holidays. OR….it halves as now there are more infected people in the area and we see 2500ish cases instead of the sub 2000 case count the previous weeks saw.

This prediction is tough. Theres more infected people to go out and infect others. But I also don’t know the actual reason for the spike, if it’s a back log and reporting issue, then it has no effect on the real world spread rate. Regardless, I predicted the Holidays would be responsible for a spike over the next two weeks. So, ignoring all my forecasts and going with my gut here….

Prediction: 2000

Spread Rate Actuals

Passaic Actual Spread Rates Compared to Forecasts

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

I did pretty good in Suffolk. I predicted 5000 cases, the actual was 5253. Accuracy of 95.18%!!

Boston gave me no real surprises. The daily case count was higher than previous weeks (as predicted). And all days are accounted for. Good job guys. Go get yourselves a coffee at Dunks. On me.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               1.09 Spread Rate =          5712 Cases

3 Week:               1.11 Spread Rate =          5849 Cases

2 Week:               1.24 Spread Rate =          6537 Cases

14 Day Average:               680 Avg =             4758 Cases

7 Days Average:                                800 Avg =             5603 Cases

I should probably note that none of the formulas have been notably close to hitting the right numbers in the past few weeks.

MY PREDICTION

Last week’s Spread Rate was 1.37, the previous week was 1.12 and the weeks before that sat at around 1.01ish. Just as I thought, a spike around the Holidays. But what now? When does the spike flatten out and start to dip? Well with no upcoming Holidays, I predict things to head back down soon. But I could see this week’s numbers looking close to last weeks as Boston begins to flatten out. So maybe the 4WASR and 3WASR formulas have a point?

Harking back to Halloween and Thanksgiving, both Holidays saw a two week spike and then slope back to Spread Rates of 0.95-1.00. Seeing as Christmas and New Year’s kind of sit on top of each other, I think all states/cities may see a three-plus week spike. Kind of like compounding interest on a bad loan.

All the formulas are close to the 6000 mark. And given the pattern of past holidays I’d be willing to say that’s a good mark to aim for.

Prediction: 6000

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Rhode Island also didn’t exactly hit my number, but it didn’t entirely disappoint. 5 out of 7 days last week saw over 1000 new cases each.

My prediction was for 9000, the actual was 7145. 79.39% accuracy.

The state reported cases on all days and no day was any more unusual than another.

Also, as of January 11th, the state has surpassed 100,000 Covid Cases reported. That’s one-tenth the state’s population. Meaning if you know 10 people in Rhode Island, odds are that you know one person who has had Covid.

Also also, I’ve been following the Case Count Doubling timeline.

Apr 10: Cases Doubled in 5 days

Apr 19: Cases Doubled in 9 days

May 6: Cases Doubled in 17 days (10638 cases)

Aug 24: Cases Doubled in 110 days

Nov 14: Cases Doubled in 82 days

Dec 28: Cases Doubled in 44 days (85601 cases)

The next predicted Doubling is in roughly 80 days. But that’s only if there are 7000+ cases a week for the next three months. Unless I’m looking at this wrong…It looks like the doubling may have peaked in December. If the cases really do start to slope down as I predict, there won’t be another Doubling for over 120 days.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:               0.99 Spread Rate =          7045 Cases

3 Week:               1.07 Spread Rate =          7639 Cases

2 Week:               1.20 Spread Rate =          8547 Cases

14 Day Average:               1020 Avg =          7140 Cases

7 Days Average:                                1021 Avg =          7145 Cases

Again, no formula has been notably accurate in the last few weeks.

MY PREDICTION

Looking at Halloween and Thanksgiving again…Halloween had a 3 week Spread Rate spike and Thanksgiving had 2ish weeks. Again, Christmas and New Year’s being so close together may spark a 3 week spike. But, last week’s spike was not as big as I expected. Last week’s Spread Rate was almost exactly 1.00. So maybe we will see another 1.00 week before a slow creep downward. OR….. Rhode Island goes crazy next week and everyone infects 5 people each….

Prediction: 7000

BONUS!!!!

I’ve been looking at Rhode Islands Testing results as well. Specifically tracking the Positive % compared to total tests for the week. Take a look at this chart.

12/21 Update and 1/4 Predictions

I haven’t been updating these last two weeks because I actually ended up getting Covid. Turns out my tracker couldn’t give me the heads up….

The last week I ran predications for was 12/21, Christmas week. And I did pretty well! My prediction accuracy for the whole week was 93.38%!!!

Bringing my total overall accuracy up to 83.72%

TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

12/21 Prediction: 3000

Actual: 2932

Accuracy: 97.73%

12/28 Actual: 3532

I noticed that the 4WASR (4 Week Average Spread Rate) forecasting formula has been pretty close the last few weeks.

Week:   (Prediction | Actual)

12/28:   3448 | 3532

12/21:   3528 | 2932 ***Prediction with my “Holiday Math” comes to 2520***

12/14:   2523 | 3051

12/7:      2712 | 2232

I’ll be looking at the 4WASR forecast for the coming weeks.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.14  Spread Rate =       4030 Cases

3 Week: 1.18  Spread Rate =        4159 Cases

2 Week: 1.08 Spread Rate =         3825 Cases

14 Day Average:  497 Avg =          3481 Cases

7 Days Average:  505 Avg =          3532 Cases

Those weekly averages seem to be predicting a very specific cluster of cases. While the 14 and 7 day averages are only off by 51 cases.

MY PREDICTION

The week of 12/21 only recorded Covid cases for 5 of the 7 days (71%). If we calculate what 2932 is 71% of, we get 4130.

The week of 12/28 only recorded Covid cases for 6 of the 7 days (86%). If we calculate what 3532 is 86% of, we get 4107

December saw a climb in cases almost every week.

12/1- 2164           12/7-2232            12/14-3051          12/21-2932 (or 4130)       12/28-3532 (or 4107)

If we calculate the 4WASR but use the estimated totals instead of the Holiday affected totals, we get a Spread Rate of 1.19 for the week of 1/4/21. Against the Estimated 4107 total from 12/28, that means the 4WASR estimate for 1/4/21 is 4873.

I will agree with this number. I think we will see a spike in cases due to Holiday gatherings. I’d even argue the number of cases could be higher than 4873. This spike could last two or three weeks before finally leveling out. Hopefully, the lack of any meaningful Holidays coming up (Valentine’s Day is fake) means the Spread Rate will start to level off and trend downwards.

Prediction: 4900 cases for 1/5

PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

12/21 Prediction: 1500

Actual: 1714

Accuracy: 87.51%

12/28 Actual: 1428

Passaic reported cases on all days, including Christmas Eve/Day and New Years.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:   0.84 Spread Rate =       1194 Cases

3 Week:   0.82 Spread Rate =       1171 Cases

2 Week:   0.82 Spread Rate =        1172 Cases

14 Day Average:   224 Avg =         1571 Cases

7 Days Average:   204 Avg =         1428 Cases

The weekly averages being lower than the daily averages may be hinting at a spike coming with the Holidays.

MY PREDICTION

Passaic recorded cases on all days, so I won’t have to do any creative accounting.

However, that doesn’t mean that people getting tested was lower due to the Holidays. I got sick on Christmas Eve and waited until Saturday to get tested. So numbers can still be low. Not to mention I have suspected there will be a delayed boom as people travel and gather for the holidays.

The weeks leading to the holidays saw case increases like: (12/1-12/14) 2927, 2592, and 2122. Which was trending down already.

My formulas don’t support this idea but I believe there will be a spike from the Holidays.

My prediction: 2500 cases

SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

12/21 Prediction: 3361

Actual: 3425

Accuracy: 98.13%

12/28 Actual: 3846

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:   1.01 Spread Rate =       3875 Cases

3 Week:  0.99  Spread Rate =       3825 Cases

2 Week:  0.99 Spread Rate =        3797 Cases

14 Day Average:   553 Avg =         3872 Cases

7 Days Average:   609 Avg =         4262 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Both 12/21 & 12/28 were both missing one day of reporting.

So, following the same formulas… The estimated actuals would be:

12/28: 4487

12/21: 3996

Adding this to the Weekly Case counts in December we get: (11/30-12/28) 3810, 3985, 4023, 3996, 4487. So we can see a steady climb. The three weeks prior to the start of December were all hovering around 2000.

Using those numbers makes the current 4WASR forecast 1.05, 1.05 of the estimated 4487 = 4690.

But, staying in line with my other areas and my prediction of a spike, I believe this number may be closer to 5000.

Prediction: 5000 cases

RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

12/21 Prediction: 4624

Actual: 5129

Accuracy: 90.15%

12/28 Actual: 7134

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  0.98 Spread Rate =        6960 Cases

3 Week:  0.98 Spread Rate =        6997 Cases

2 Week:  1.10 Spread Rate =         7869 Cases

14 Day Average:   876 Avg =         6132 Cases

7 Days Average:  1019 Avg =        7134 Cases

MY PREDICTION

Rhode Island reported cases for all holidays, so I won’t have to do any creative accounting.

Since Rhode Island introduced “The Pause” a few weeks ago, they saw cases go from 8903 & 8545 a week to 6293 then 5129. A significant decrease. Yet, on New Year’s Eve and the two days prior, the state saw daily cases of 1187, 1160 and 1592. The week of 12/28 had a total case count of 7134. So we can see the spike is already starting to happen.

I think Rhode Island will see numbers next week that are close to pre-“pause” numbers.

Looking at historical spikes and their spread rates we have the Week before Halloween (1.72), the Week after Halloween (1.27) and the week after Thanksgiving (1.50). Using these Spread Rates against 12/28s cases we get:

1.72= 12,244 Cases

1.27= 9073 Cases

1.50= 10,713 Cases

Also to be considered, I’ve been looking at the states Weekly Positive Test Averages.

This chart represents the Percent of Positive Cases compared to the Total amount of tests.

Overall I think we could be looking at anything between a 1.27 and 1.50 Spread Rate. But we also haven’t seen weekly case numbers surpass 8902 before…..so…..who knows.

Prediction: 9000 Cases

12/21 Predictions & Analyst (Austin, Passaic, Boston, Rhode Island)

These next two weeks will be interesting. I anticipate all states to have a spike as travel and socialization is up with the holidays, but I expect the reported cases to be way down as the holidays will disrupt testing and data updates. Also, there is a possibility that people will avoid testing as they plan visiting family.

That being said, last week’s prediction accuracy was 81.21%, raising my total accuracy from 70.14% to 78.91%. Wooooooo!

So my plan for this week is to just quickly analyze the data and trends then find what 5/7ths of that number may be (roughly 71.43%). The thought process being that there will be no testing on the holidays. Between those two numbers we should see the actual numbers fall in that range.

Then again, maybe we will see higher than normal numbers from previous weeks increased travel???

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TRAVIS COUNTY (AUSTIN, TEXAS)

Travis County ended up being higher than predicted, coming in at 3051 cases. A 36.7% increase from 12/7s 2232 cases. The spread rate went from 1.03 to 1.37.

This is easily from the increase in travel and socialization. Not to mention “Covid Fatigue”. So I was right about seeing an increase, but I shot too low.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.16 Spread Rate =        3528 Cases

3 Week:  1.25 Spread Rate =        3807 Cases

2 Week:  1.20 Spread Rate =        3659 Cases

14 Day Average:  377.36 Avg =    2641.5 Cases

7 Days Average:   436 Avg =         3051 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The Travis County Spread Rate has been creeping back up. See the chart above. My closest prediction model last week was the 2WASR (2 week average) with a prediction of 1.19, 2652 cases. That same model is now predicting a 1.20 spread rate or 3659 cases.

The Holiday Prediction (only counting 71.43% of the full prediction) is 2613 cases. That’s a wide gap, almost 1000 case gap. But considering the unpredicatableness of everything…..it is what it is.

So, Travis County Prediction for 12/21: 2613-3659. Maybe call it 3000 to be safe…

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PASSAIC COUNTY (NEW JERSEY)

Passaic hit lower numbers than I predicted with 2122 cases. This is the second week in a row that the cases and spread rates have declined. (I predicted a small spike this week). Spread Rates dropped as follows:

11/23- 1.27

11/30- 1.05

12/7- 0.89

12/14-0.82

I see a trend! And according to the graph below, it looks like the spread rate is dropping ever so slowly from the Halloween Massacre.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.01 Spread Rate =        2137 Cases

3 Week:  0.92 Spread Rate =        1949 Cases

2 Week:  0.85 Spread Rate =        1808 Cases

14 Day Average:  336.71 Avg =    2357 Cases

7 Days Average:  303 Avg =          2122 Cases

MY PREDICTION

The closest prediction formula for the actual case count last week was, again, the 2WASR with a prediction of 2510. But even that was nearly 400 too high. I now believe the new lockdown orders in the area may actually be doing something. Despite the fact that it is hurting many business owners that I know, which is hard to watch.

With this information and knowledge of local politics, we can assume the spread rate will continue to fall. But then there are all the Holiday gatherings. So the two might offset each other. Meaning the cases won’t spike, but they won’t exactly fall off either. For those reasons I will go with the 3WASR of 0.92 or 1949 cases.

The Holiday Prediction of that number is: 1403. But that’s not an exact science. (Who am I kidding? None of this is an exact science.) So let me add to that number. Why? Because I wanna!

My Prediction: 1500 cases (if there are no cases recorded on the Holidays)

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SUFFOLK COUNTY (BOSTON, MASSACHUSSETTS)

Suffolk County numbers were also down compared to predictions. New cases for the week were 4023, compared to the previous weeks 3985. The spread rate only increased 0.95%. But according to the graph below, the Spread Rate has been staying in a specific range where the average Spread Rate from the past 35 weeks is 1.04.

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.23 Spread Rate =        4968 Cases

3 Week:  1.33 Spread Rate =        5355 Cases

2 Week:  1.03 Spread Rate =        4135 Cases

14 Day Average:  614.93 Avg =    4304.5 Cases

7 Days Average:  666.86  Avg =   4668 Cases ** This average hasn’t changed much since last week. Its increased, but not by much.

MY PREDICTION

The 7 day average hasn’t changed by much. But when compared to a week of cases, it comes out to a Spread Rate of 1.16, higher than last week. Given the Holidays, I’d say this number is possible.

Now for the Holiday Prediction formula….beep…boop….beep….boop……3361 Cases.

Sure lets go with that: 3361 Cases

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RHODE ISLAND (Yea, like the whole state)

Admittedly I am not doing well with Rhode Island. You guys are all over the place. I predicted 8400, seeing as the previous two weeks were in the 8500 to 9000 range and you were going into another lockdown. Your actual was 6293….so good for you for getting that Spread Rate down! (0.74 for those actually playing along at home)

FORMULA FORECASTS

4 Week:  1.02 Spread Rate =        6423 Cases

3 Week:  1.07 Spread Rate =        6708 Cases

2 Week:  0.85 Spread Rate =         5338 Cases

14 Day Average:  1059.86 Avg =  7419 Cases ** This number has been declining since 12/13 where it hit its highest of 1259.

7 Days Average:   899 Avg =         6293 Cases **This number has been declining since 12/10 where it hit its highest of 1328

MY PREDICTION

Looking at the above graph, we can see the Spread Rate is declining since its spike in September. But I suspect the Holidays will stunt the decline. So I will be sticking with the 4WASR prediction of 1.02 or 6423 Cases.

With Holiday Prediction math……4624 Cases